Today’s Horse Racing Analysis Kempton 2.35 – 3yo Class 6 Handicap (7f, AW)
The 2.35 at Kempton presents a low-grade 3yo-only handicap over 7 furlongs on the Standard to Slow Polytrack surface. With just eight runners and a weak overall pace forecast, the race could be shaped more by tactical positioning than raw ability. Below is the full breakdown of each horse, covering suitability, profile depth, pace dynamics, and PR vs OR performance potential.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
I Follow Rivers
Trainer: R. Spencer
Jockey: George Wood
OR: 58 (penalised 6lb for latest win)
Pace: Prominent
A decisive winner last time at Wolverhampton over 7f, making all the running at short odds. That effort now attracts a 6lb penalty, raising his OR to 58. While he does have a win and place over this trip, there’s no previous Kempton or Polytrack form. His win came off an OR of 52 and the PR vs OR now sits at -6, suggesting vulnerability under the penalty if he’s not able to control the race again.
Verdict: Strong recent win, but under pressure now from both the rise in OR and a different track profile.
Muy Muy Loco
Trainer: S. Dow
Jockey: Paddy Bradley
OR: 52
Pace: Midfield
Yet to place in four runs and hasn’t shown enough tactical speed to suggest this drop in trip will be a benefit. Backed on handicap debut at Lingfield (1m), but ran flat. PR vs OR sits at -3, which is not terminal, but he has offered nothing to suggest upside at 7f today.
Verdict: Modest profile, unproven at trip or surface, and hard to support based on what he’s shown.
Big Gypsy King
Trainer: P. & O. Cole
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
OR: 51 (runs under 6lb penalty)
Pace: Likely Leader
Won by 5 lengths over this trip at Chelmsford three days ago and looked a different horse dropped to 7f. She dictated and drew clear, producing one of the strongest recent runs in the field. Although her PR (43) is lower than her OR, the race makeup could play to her strengths. She’s well drawn in stall 3 and could get an uncontested lead in a race lacking pace.
Verdict: Strong recent performance; potential tactical edge as sole pace angle makes her dangerous.
Lunanova
Trainer: Mrs A J Perrett
Jockey: David Probert
OR: 50
Pace: Hold Up
Slight promise over this course and distance when not beaten far in a big field. She didn’t get the clearest run and was staying on through traffic. PR of 47 vs OR of 50 suggests she’s close to her ceiling but not badly treated. Will be played late, so needs the leaders to tire.
Verdict: If the pace collapses, she could pick up the pieces. Conditions are workable, though profile is modest.
Amber Honey
Trainer: E A L Dunlop
Jockey: Robert Havlin
OR: 50
Pace: Hold Up
Five runs without placing, including when beaten 5 lengths over 1m at Yarmouth. Today she sports blinkers for the first time, which may spark some improvement. However, PR of 46 suggests she’s already exposed at this level.
Verdict: First-time headgear is the only unknown, but she has shown little so far and looks opposable.
Magna
Trainer: A W Carroll
Jockey: Jack Doughty (3)
OR: 47 → Effective OR 44 (claim)
Pace: Midfield
Placed in three of her last five, including a good effort over this course and distance. PR of 49 vs an adjusted OR of 44 makes her one of the best-in horses at the weights. She’s consistent, handles Kempton, and looks primed for another solid run. Lack of pace may blunt her late kick, but she’s the strongest value in behind.
Verdict: Most attractively handicapped runner in the field. Strong place claims with potential to capitalise late.
Oldbury Lad
Trainer: G Harris
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
OR: 46 (1lb wrong)
Pace: Midfield
Four poor runs as a juvenile including one on Tapeta. First run on Polytrack today and steps up in class. PR of 40 suggests he’s simply not ready to compete at this level.
Verdict: Unexposed but form gives no reason for support. Big improvement needed.
Galette
Trainer: J G Portman
Jockey: Olivia Tubb (5)
OR: 46 → Effective OR 41 (claim)
Pace: May push forward
Ten starts, no wins, no AW places despite multiple tries. PR vs OR is positive (+1), but the form doesn’t support it. Expected to track the pace or try to force it from a wide stall, but unlikely to sustain any effort.
Verdict: Rating is fair, but profile is completely exposed. Hard to recommend.
Race Shape & Pace Summary
The ATR forecast is for a weak pace, which brings tactical speed into focus. The only likely leader is Big Gypsy King, drawn well and capable of dictating under a penalty. I Follow Rivers and possibly Galette may sit handy, while others will look to pick them off late.
The pace shape favours those on the speed — particularly if they can pinch a lead before turning in.
PR vs OR Rankings (with claims adjusted)
| Horse | OR (Adj) | PR | PR vs OR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magna | 44 | 49 | +5 |
| Galette | 41 | 42 | +1 |
| Lunanova | 50 | 47 | -3 |
| Muy Muy Loco | 52 | 49 | -3 |
| Amber Honey | 50 | 46 | -4 |
| I Follow Rivers | 58 | 52 | -6 |
| Oldbury Lad | 46 | 40 | -6 |
| Big Gypsy King | 51 | 43 | -8 |
While Big Gypsy King is numerically poorly treated, the race conditions and tactical shape swing the balance back in her favour.
Final View: Key Contenders
Big Gypsy King – Looks like the tactical winner in a race with no pace. Can control from the front.
Magna – Exceptionally well-in at the weights with C&D form. Big danger if they go a touch too quick early.
Lunanova – Will be ridden for luck; if gaps appear, she could grab a place late.
Best Betting Offers for Horse Racing Punters
Looking for bookmaker offers ahead of today’s racing? Visit our Best Horse Racing Betting Sites page for updated sign-up bonuses, live streaming options, and boosted odds.
Today’s Horse Racing Analysis – Free Betting Insights & Shortlist
Race: 3.10 Kempton
Race Type: Class 4 Fillies’ Handicap
Distance: 6f
Surface: Polytrack
Runners: 10
Going: Standard to Slow
This is a tightly matched 3yo+ fillies’ handicap with a number of lightly raced types against seasoned all-weather performers. Let’s break the race down in full, assessing profiles, track suitability, pace dynamics, and PR vs OR handicapping angles.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Shallow
Strong Kempton profile with two wins and two seconds from four C&D runs. She’s a likeable front-runner who thrives on Polytrack, but now races off a career-high mark of 80. Her PR is 74, suggesting she’s likely at or above her ceiling. While competitive, others may have more to come.
Persian Spirit
Unexposed and open to significant improvement. Her debut win was impressive and her only defeat came on heavy ground, which she may not have handled. A PR of 84 compared to her mark of 80 suggests she’s one of the few in here with upward potential. First run since October but enters calculations.
Miss Collada
Previously progressive but disappointed on return at Doncaster. Her only win at Kempton came over 7f, and she’s 0 from 5 at today’s trip. Her PR has been downgraded to 69, suggesting she’s now running above her ability level. Risky unless bouncing back sharply.
Glamour Show
Reliable and consistent. Landed a well-backed C&D handicap on reappearance in March and has never finished out of the top three since debut. Now off 79 and her PR is 78, indicating she’s close to her limit, but she’s holding her form well and remains a serious contender.
Isabella Castile
Won a novice over 6f on soft last year and shaped better than the bare result at Newmarket last time. Makes AW debut today and her PR of 73 vs mark of 77 shows she may need to improve a little to land this, but she’s still unexposed and not dismissed.
Scattering Light
Has shown glimpses of ability but ran too freely over 7f last time. Dropping back to 6f could help, but she’s yet to place in three starts on Polytrack and ran to her ceiling of 74 last time. Needs more to feature here.
Star Zia
Improving profile and produced a solid second at Nottingham last time. She’s a Tapeta winner and placed on Polytrack. Her PR of 70 suggests she’s now racing right on the limit off 74. Could run well again but may lack winning edge in this grade.
Gogo Yubari
Very exposed and winless in higher grades. Has five wins overall but they’ve all come in Class 6 or weak Class 5 company. Her PR is 65 vs OR 63, so technically she’s not badly treated, but her recent form has tailed off. Difficult to fancy in this field.
So Sassy
Showed some promise at Lingfield when sent off odds-on but didn’t settle early. She’s clearly thought capable, but her PR sits at 68 vs mark of 72. That gives her a little to find, and she may need more time or headgear to realise her potential.
Cuban Girl
Trainer may be looking to bring her mark down as she hasn’t shown much in three runs so far. Her PR of 67 is slightly below today’s OR of 70 and there’s little evidence of suitability for Kempton or this class. Best watched for now.
Pace Analysis
Shallow is the likely pace angle and should lead from stall 10. Persian Spirit is also expected to be handy from stall 9, while Glamour Show should sit just behind the leaders. There’s little in the way of sustained pressure from the rest, so the early pace may favour prominent racers drawn wide who can slot in without hassle.
If the race goes steady, late closers like Star Zia and Miss Collada may struggle to land a blow.
PR vs OR Key Insights
Shallow has possibly peaked off a mark of 80 with her PR at 74. Still dangerous at Kempton but no margin for error.
Persian Spirit has the most upside with a PR of 84 against a mark of 80. Could be well-in.
Glamour Show is running right at her ceiling (PR 78 vs OR 79) but remains consistent.
Miss Collada, Star Zia, and So Sassy are all racing at or slightly above their perceived ceilings.
Gogo Yubari and Cuban Girl are exposed or limited in this grade.
Final Shortlist
Based on a combination of form, suitability to conditions, and PR vs OR insights, three runners emerge as the most logical contenders:
Persian Spirit – Unexposed filly open to major improvement. Trainer and pedigree both suggest she’ll handle AW.
Glamour Show – Consistent profile with strong C&D win last time. May not have huge improvement left but ticks many boxes.
Shallow – Proven track specialist who loves making the running here. PR suggests limited upside, but she’s dangerous if allowed an easy lead.
