Today’s Horse Race Analysis – 7f Handicap at Kempton (Class 4)

Race Overview – 7f Handicap, Class 4 – Kempton (AW), 07 May 2025

A competitive Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs at Kempton with a full field of 14 declared runners. The pace forecast is even, which may favour prominent racers drawn low who can control their positioning early. Several course specialists return, while a few lightly raced types come into this with scope for improvement. The OR vs PR trends offer strong clues for hidden value.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Chalk Mountain (OR 81 / PR 79)

CD winner, but ended last season off form and returns from a break. While capable, he’s above his ideal mark and needs to show renewed spark. Low win % at this surface suggests caution.

2. Lerwick (OR 79 / PR 74)

Only modest turf effort latest but showed fair AW form prior. 0/14 in this class is a red flag. Will need everything to drop right off this mark – more place potential than win.

3. Wobwobwob (OR 79 / PR 80)

Patchy profile, better at 6f, but not without hope. First-time Polytrack. On a competitive mark, and wouldn’t be a shock if bouncing back, but trust factor is low.

4. Study Up (OR 77 / PR 82)

Only two career starts but highly promising. Strong PR relative to OR (+5), unexposed, up in trip looks ideal. Massive player if building on reappearance fourth.

5. Silver Trumpet (OR 77 / PR 76)

Course winner and all three career wins over this trip. Didn’t stay 1m last time. Back at 7f with cheekpieces fitted; draw a concern but looks ready to go close.

6. Lessay (OR 76 / PR 73)

Excellent Kempton record (2 from 4 over CD), but looks a few pounds too high now. Better at 7f than 1m so drop back in trip helps. Not discounted for place.

7. Billy Mill (OR 75 / PR 75)

0/9 over CD but consistent enough. Exposed but rarely runs a bad race. Each-way claims but vulnerable to improvers.

8. Giant (OR 75 / PR 73)

Capable but frustrating. CD winner, sliding in the weights, and 7f is ideal. Each-way chance from a fair draw.

9. Extrication (OR 74 / PR 75)

Lightly raced and shaped okay in handicaps without threatening. Has place potential at best.

11. Arctician (OR 73 / PR 76)

Loves Kempton – 4 wins over CD. Very solid on current form, and PR suggests he can go in again at this level. Strong contender if getting a clear run.

12. Shelbourne (OR 71 / PR 70)

One-paced and often finds trouble in running. Consistent enough to fill the frame, but others hold stronger win credentials.

13. Cill Mocheallog (OR 71 / PR 76)

Very interesting profile. Early Irish form hinted at ability and now 5lbs well-in vs PR. Massive outsider who could spring a surprise if bouncing back.

14. Serenity Dream (OR 66 / PR 74)

Top PR vs OR differential (+8). Has won here over CD and now races off a career-low mark. Dangerously well-treated if connections have him primed. New yard adds intrigue.

Final Shortlist: Where to Find Value Bets in Horse Racing

• Study Up – Unexposed and rates a likely improver off a generous mark.

• Arctician – Proven CD performer who remains very solid off current rating.

• Serenity Dream – Massive PR vs OR gap, yard switch and returns to best trip; lively outsider.