Horse Racing Analysis 3/1/2025

Race Analysis: 6:00 Southwell – BetMGM: Its Showtime Handicap

Race Overview

• Race: BetMGM: Its Showtime Handicap
• Time: 6:00 PM
• Track: Southwell (Tapeta)
• Distance: 7f (1554 yards)
• Class: 5 Handicap
• Field Size: 10 Runners
• Going: Standard (All-Weather)
• Winner’s Purse: £5234
• Average OR: 64
• Median OR: 63.5
• Pace Forecast: Weak (This could lead to a slow and tactical race, giving opportunities for closers if the pace collapses.)

Runner-by-Runner Analysis

1. Foro Romano (IRE) – OR 69
   • Trainer: M. Botti
   • Jockey: Marco Ghiani
   • Pace Rating: 6
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
     • Place Confidence: 🟠 Medium
   • Key Notes:
     Foro Romano is lightly-raced and has placed once in four starts. He was a distant 7th on his last outing over 5f at Ripon in August. Now stepping up to 7f for the first time, his stamina will be tested. The weak pace may benefit his mid-pack style, but he is unproven at this level and will need significant improvement to be competitive.

2. Rock Diva (IRE) – OR 67
   • Trainer: Ollie Sangster
   • Jockey: Trevor Whelan
   • Pace Rating: 5
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🟠 Medium
     • Place Confidence: 🟢 High
   • Key Notes:
     Rock Diva has shown steady improvement, placing once in three starts. She was slightly hampered in her latest effort at Wolverhampton but remains a contender. With a weak pace forecast, she should be in the mix, especially considering her solid record on synthetic surfaces and the step up to handicap company.

3. Brightandbeautiful – OR 67
   • Trainer: A. M. Balding
   • Jockey: Hayley Turner
   • Pace Rating: 2
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
     • Place Confidence: 🟠 Medium
   • Key Notes:
     Brightandbeautiful has placed once in four starts, with a credible performance at Chelmsford last month. Despite her placing ability, she tends to be held up and will need a strong pace, which the weak forecast may not provide. Tactical positioning will be key, and she could struggle if the pace doesn’t collapse enough for her late run to materialize.

4. Minelone (IRE) – OR 67
   • Trainer: Alice Haynes
   • Jockey: S. D. Bowen (3lb claim)
   • Pace Rating: 7
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🟠 Medium
     • Place Confidence: 🟢 High
   • Key Notes:
     Minelone brings potential with a strong pace rating of 7, and he could be dangerous if the race is run to suit his early position. He has shown form in his maiden races but has been found wanting at times. His first handicap start, with visor and tongue-tie, may be the change needed. With strong early speed and the right positioning, he could be in the mix for a place.

5. Cosmic Force – OR 64
   • Trainer: George Boughey
   • Jockey: Callum Shepherd
   • Pace Rating: 1
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
     • Place Confidence: 🔴 Low
   • Key Notes:
     Cosmic Force has been unplaced in all four starts, and his pace rating of 1 makes him reliant on an incredibly slow pace. He will need a dramatic collapse in the race to get involved, as he lacks the finishing speed to challenge under normal conditions. He remains a long shot for any significant improvement.

6. Whizz By – OR 63
   • Trainer: Tom Ward
   • Jockey: S. M. Levey
   • Pace Rating: 5
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🟢 High
     • Place Confidence: 🟢 High
   • Key Notes:
     Whizz By is the form horse, with two wins from her last five starts, including a victory at Southwell over 7f. The weak pace should suit her as she is a closer who thrives on a slower tempo. She’s well-handicapped and has been running in solid form; another win is certainly within reach if she runs to her best.

7. Empowered Queen (FR) – OR 61
   • Trainer: Ollie Sangster
   • Jockey: Nicola Currie
   • Pace Rating: 4
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
     • Place Confidence: 🟠 Medium
   • Key Notes:
     Despite no wins in six starts, Empowered Queen has shown some promise with a respectable 4th place at Southwell. Her pace rating suggests she will sit midfield and could benefit from the weak pace in the race. However, she still needs significant improvement to be competitive for the win.

8. Bantz (IRE) – OR 61
   • Trainer: Gemma Tutty
   • Jockey: Joanna Mason
   • Pace Rating: 3
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
     • Place Confidence: 🟠 Medium
   • Key Notes:
     Bantz has been unplaced in most of his career but showed a bit of promise in his last outing. His pace rating of 3 suggests that he will be held up, and the weak pace may play to his advantage if he can position himself for a late charge. However, his form is inconsistent, and his chances of winning remain slim.

9. The Outlaw (IRE) – OR 61
   • Trainer: R. M. Beckett
   • Jockey: Edward Greatrex
   • Pace Rating: 5
   • Confidence Levels:
     • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
     • Place Confidence: 🔴 Low
   • Key Notes:
     The Outlaw has shown no form in his three runs, and although his pace rating suggests he will be prominent, he will need to show substantial improvement. His form suggests that he’s unlikely to threaten the leaders unless there’s a major shift in his performances.

10. Desert Eye – OR 59
    • Trainer: Amy Murphy
    • Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
    • Pace Rating: 7
    • Confidence Levels:
      • Win Confidence: 🔴 Low
      • Place Confidence: 🔴 Low
    • Key Notes:
      Desert Eye has been struggling in all of her previous starts, but she’s been showing a bit more in recent outings. Blinkers on for the first time could help, and with a pace rating of 7, she could be prominent early. However, her form is still well below what’s required to challenge for a win or place.

Key Insights

• Whizz By looks to be the most promising, with her strong track form and ability to thrive under weak pace conditions. She is the horse to beat today.
• Minelone and Rock Diva (IRE) have the potential to cause an upset if they can maintain their early position and handle the handicap environment.
• The Outlaw and Cosmic Force will need to surprise us with significant improvement to be in contention for a place.

Final Thoughts

• Whizz By has shown she excels at Southwell over 7f and comes into this race with the best recent form.
• Minelone‘s first handicap start could unlock the key to better form, making him a solid contender for a place.
• Keep an eye on Brightandbeautiful, as she may benefit if the race collapses in pace, but the weak pace could also work against her.
• Foro Romano and The Outlaw will need to surprise us with significant improvement to figure prominently in the race.

Shortlist

1. Whizz By – Best form, especially at Southwell, and in the best position for a win.
2. Minelone (IRE) – Strong pace rating, could be competitive in first handicap start.
3. Rock Diva (IRE) – Improving, and could place with the right conditions.
4. Brightandbeautiful – Could sneak a place if the pace collapses, but needs to be tactically positioned well.

Win/Place Potential

• Overpriced:
  Minelone (IRE) – Could be an interesting underdog in his first handicap start with new headgear.
  Rock Diva (IRE) – Could provide value for a place finish, given her improving form and adaptable pace.

• Win Selection:
  Whizz By – The form horse, with a strong record at Southwell over 7f, making her the most likely winner.

• Each-Way Selection:
  Minelone (IRE) – A solid contender in his first handicap start with a strong pace rating and first-time headgear. He offers good each-way value.