Horse Race Analysis
7.30 Wolverhampton – Full Profiling Preview (22 May 2025)
Class 6 | 1m½f | 3yo Handicap | Tapeta | 10 runners
This is a typical basement-level 3yo handicap, but it’s not short of profiling interest. The pace setup looks competitive enough to test soft stayers, and a few unexposed types are clearly being repositioned. Ground and surface are standard. Pace ratings, draw, and positioning could determine which profiles can defy exposed form.
Pace Shape
Front-running pressure likely from Pomme Pomme (7) and Invincible Storm (7), with Benny The Bouncer (6) potentially pressing.
Not an overly hot setup, but not a crawl either. Even fractions look more likely than burn-ups or crawls, which gives tactical riders an edge.
Horses drawn inside who can hold a stalking spot without getting shuffled back will be best placed.
Runner Profiles (Sorted by Stall Order)
1 – Aroof (6) | OR 55 | PR 55 | Pace 2
Freely-raced and overdid it last time over 12f when well backed. No prior form of substance, and drop to 1m½f looks more damage limitation than placement. No tactical speed, no form, and no angles.
Verdict: Lay or ignore.
2 – Ignition (7) | OR 54 (51 net) | PR 51 | Pace 3
One of the few with solid PR vs OR alignment (within -3), and has already placed over C&D. Let down last time when ridden too aggressively. Back in trip with blinkers retained and jockey claim helps. Only two places from eight, but this race lacks depth.
Verdict: Top-tier shortlist. Has run to or above his mark and conditions suit.
3 – Pomme Pomme (8) | OR 53 +6 penalty | PR 47 | Pace 7
Scored easily at Bath over 10f last week and reappears quickly under a 6lb penalty. Major question is whether that form translates to Tapeta. Led at even fractions and kicked – profile fits this race shape. Big ask under a penalty, but highly progressive.
Verdict: Win threat, but PR still low relative to revised mark. Shortlist if price is missed elsewhere.
4 – Kilteel (1) | NR
5 – Scenario (2) | OR 52 | PR 50 | Pace 4
Profiled earlier as one of the dark horses. Completely unexposed and now up in trip from 6f. Limited form at two, but trip change is logical and she’s drawn to sit handy. Will need to show more, but OR vs PR is not far off, and setup is interesting.
Verdict: Speculative shortlist inclusion, especially given draw and trip change.
6 – Pure Imagination (3) | OR 50 | PR 45 | Pace 2
First-time tongue tie and cheekpieces. Never involved over sprint trips, but hinted at something in second start. Muscutt booked and she’s very well drawn. From a low yard, but today is the first scenario where she’s remotely profile-suited.
Verdict: Late shortlist, needs to step forward but everything changes today. Watch the market.
7 – Benny The Bouncer (5) | OR 50 | PR 44 | Pace 6
Cheekpieces on. First run for new yard. Showed limited ability in three novice runs but may be ridden more positively today. Still, has a mountain to climb and hasn’t shaped like he’s crying for further. No tactical edge unless allowed soft lead.
Verdict: Not convinced. Profile still weak despite minor switch-ups.
8 – Invincible Storm (10) | OR 48 (43 net) | PR 42 | Pace 7
Wind-op bounce last time, almost won over 7f. Now up in trip, well-drawn to go forward. PR just below OR, but jockey claim more than bridges it. Only one place so far, but visually looked like more to come. Placement looks right. May get caught wide, but the setup works.
Verdict: Strong shortlist candidate. Most obvious progression horse in the field.
9 – Mighty Real (4) | OR 46 (1lb wrong) | PR 47 | Pace unrated
First run in nearly a year. Very limited data, but has shaped like a stayer. PR is slightly above OR, which is very rare in this field. Big layoff tempers confidence, but Saffie Osborne is a smart booking and he’s drawn to tuck in behind pace.
Verdict: Back-end shortlist inclusion. Needs to be fit but form logic makes sense.
10 – Nanna Western (9) | OR 46 | PR 0 | Pace unrated
Not run to any level of competitiveness. PR of 0 is a red flag. Nothing in pedigree, draw, jockey, surface switch or trainer angle to suggest she’s here to compete.
Verdict: Full discard.
Shortlist (Primary Contenders)
Ignition – Consistent PR/OR balance, placed over C&D, drops in trip, blinkers retained, well drawn.
Invincible Storm – Positive trajectory after wind-op, stays on well, jockey claim brings net OR to 43, strong tactical setup.
Dark Horses (Profile-Based Improvers)
Scenario – First try beyond 6f, well drawn, unexposed, could stalk the right pace.
Mighty Real – Long absence but PR is above OR, big trip move, draw and jockey booking both positives.
Race Overview: 5.15 Chelmsford City – 1m2f Handicap (C5, Polytrack)
Race Overview: 5.15 Chelmsford City – 1m2f Handicap (C5, Polytrack)
A 10-runner amateur riders’ handicap over Chelmsford’s turning 1m2f trip on Polytrack. The field is largely comprised of exposed older handicappers with mixed profiles, but there are distinct course biases and recent form indicators that help sift the pretenders from the players. Pace shape appears competitive, but with a potential lack of an obvious forceful leader, making positioning and prior CD suitability crucial.
Pace Shape
The declared pace map suggests potential congestion around midfield-to-prominent positions, with no natural tearaway. Star Start is the only habitual forward mover with a pace rating of 10, and may attempt to dictate under an amateur with a positive record. Alazwar and Meadram can race handily, while Egoiste, Crafter and Ciotog all tend to sit just off the pace. A muddling early tempo isn’t out of the question unless something unexpectedly commits. Chelmsford can favour early tractability, so horses with solid CD profiles and the ability to lay up near the front get preference.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Saligo Bay – Dual flat winner back in 2021 and largely campaigned over hurdles since. Has shown little on the level for over two years and now returns from another jumping spin. Often held up and not seen to best effect in tactical events. Hard to fancy back at this trip and surface.
2. Ciotog – Well-exposed handicapper who has been consistent on turf and Tapeta but winless in six Polytrack efforts. Recent form is respectable at a mile, though his stamina over 10f remains unproven. Likely to be held up again and relies on a pace collapse which may not materialise.
3. Moonlit Cloud – A four-time winner at this trip, but none of those came on artificial surfaces. Has run moderately on Polytrack and been out of form for a while now. The return to 1m2f suits better than her recent 9f turf attempts, but she remains risky under an amateur without a previous winning ride.
4. Meadram – A clear contender with a 50% win rate over this CD. Landed a similar event here in March off 62, travelling strongly and asserting late. Up 3lb for that and back from a short break, but retains strong claims. Clearly enjoys Chelmsford and suits this pace shape if things develop evenly. The amateur onboard has won on him before and knows him well.
5. Crafter – Longstanding project who has teased ability in these sorts of races. Three career AW wins, and ran to form last time in a better-than-average Lingfield handicap. Down 1lb and well suited by 10f on the AW. While he’s 0-8 at this class, he consistently hits the frame and should be finishing off well if not shuffled too far back.
6. Alazwar – Formerly rated in the 80s, but now operating in a lower gear. No wins beyond 9f and yet to show he can sustain effort over 10f. Likes to race handily, so could get a decent early position, but his Polytrack record is poor and he hasn’t shown much since last summer. Booking of Brodie Hampson may help, but the horse has a bit to prove.
7. Egoiste – Gained a narrow win at Kempton over 12f in March and ran creditably behind a well-ridden winner over C&D two starts back. Dropped out last time in a tactical four-runner race but could bounce back with a more even pace. Well-handicapped on best form and handles Chelmsford, but lacks the sharp turn of foot for sprint finishes. Each-way player if held up too far.
8. Blackwaterfoot – Handicap debutant with just three runs to date, all unplaced. Showed limited promise and makes a big jump in trip. Trainer has a poor strike-rate and the horse hasn’t shown enough to make him of interest despite the booking of a top amateur.
9. Star Start – Prominent-runner with a win at 11f last summer but out of form since. Showed too much pace at Nottingham in October and was eased. Returns off wind surgery and is now on a feasible mark, but the surface is a question mark and this looks tough without a prep.
10. Dubai Immo – Notoriously tricky but boasts an outstanding CD record with two wins from three over this trip here, including a wild 28/1 strike. Has placed form off much higher marks and remains well treated on past Chelmsford exploits. Outclassed in better races since, but now back to his happy hunting ground under a competent amateur. Live threat if in the right mood.
The Shortlist
1. Meadram – Solid, reliable CD operator with amateur partnership proven. The one to beat if returning in the same form. Setup looks right and profile screams suitability.
2. Dubai Immo – The wildcard. Big Chelmsford performer with two wins here and signs of life back under ideal conditions. Can go close if allowed to travel and settle.
3. Crafter – Has been threatening a win again and shaped better than the result last time. Reliable on AW, competitive off this mark, and better placed than most.
Summary
This race should come down to suitability and course efficiency more than raw form figures. Meadram is the clearest standout, ticking every box from track, trip and amateur experience. Dubai Immo is unpredictable but dangerous to rule out given how strongly he’s finished over this CD in the past. Crafter looks ready to strike if the pace isn’t overly messy and he gets cover. The rest, including long-time bridesmaid Egoiste, look place hopefuls at best in what could become a tactically muddling race.
