2.00 Kempton (5 runners) Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Fillies Handicap 6f (1320 yards) Class 4, Standard To Slow, 4yo+,
Race Overview
This is a competitive Class 4 handicap over 6f on Polytrack. The field includes several contenders with proven all-weather form, sprinting capabilities, and diverse pace profiles. The ATR Pace Forecast suggests an even pace, which may favor horses with strong finishing ability.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Cinque Verde (5)
- Form Overview: Winner of 7 races, including 6 on all-weather tracks. Returning from a layoff, she scored a narrow win over 5f at Wolverhampton 9 days ago, showcasing her sharpness.
- Distance Suitability: Versatile at sprint trips; has 2 wins from 8 attempts at this distance.
- Surface Proficiency: Outstanding Polytrack record (4 wins from 6 runs, 66.7% win rate).
- Class and Handicap: Consistent performer in Class 4 races (3 wins from 6). However, no wins at this OR (81) or higher, indicating this is her ceiling.
- Tactical Insight: Prominent runner with a high pace rating of 8. Likely to be well-positioned to capitalize on an even pace.
- Key Insight: Recent win boosts confidence, but stepping up in trip and tackling a higher OR may test her limits.
2. Just A Spark (1)
- Form Overview: C&D winner with 7 career wins. Her form has dipped since a hat-trick early in 2024, culminating in a last-place finish at Wolverhampton 13 days ago.
- Distance Suitability: 4 wins from 15 attempts at 6f highlight competence at this trip.
- Surface Proficiency: Strong on Polytrack (2 wins from 3 runs).
- Class and Handicap: Moderate strike rate (37.5%) at this class. Has won at or above this OR twice.
- Tactical Insight: Pace rating of 4 suggests she may need a stronger early pace to feature. Her regression raises concerns.
- Key Insight: Needs to rediscover form, but previous success at this time of year offers a glimmer of hope.
3. Pure Angel (3)
- Form Overview: Lightly raced, with just 1 win from 10 starts. Showed significant improvement when second over 6f at Wolverhampton 13 days ago.
- Distance Suitability: Placed twice in 3 attempts at 6f, indicating potential at this trip.
- Surface Proficiency: Limited Polytrack exposure but respectable all-weather performance overall.
- Class and Handicap: Placed in 3 of 6 Class 4 starts. Yet to win at this OR or higher.
- Tactical Insight: Pace rating of 4 suggests she’ll need to be covered up and delivered late. Recent run suggests upward trajectory.
- Key Insight: Appears well-handicapped and may improve further. Solid claims if replicating her latest effort.
4. Shallow (4)
- Form Overview: Dual 6f Polytrack winner in 2024 but underwhelmed on seasonal reappearance when sixth at Southwell in November.
- Distance Suitability: Proven over 6f, with a 40% win rate (2 from 5).
- Surface Proficiency: Thrives on Polytrack (2 wins from 4).
- Class and Handicap: Limited exposure in Class 4, with no wins. Struggles at this OR or higher.
- Tactical Insight: High pace rating of 8 suggests she’ll be prominent early. Needs a career-best to challenge.
- Key Insight: Likely to come on for her last run but faces a tough task in this field.
5. My Awele (2)
- Form Overview: Winner of 2 from 8 starts, including at 5f and 6f on the all-weather. Last seen finishing last at Wolverhampton over 7f after racing keenly.
- Distance Suitability: One win from 4 runs at 6f.
- Surface Proficiency: Limited Polytrack experience but effective on other all-weather surfaces.
- Class and Handicap: Unproven at Class 4 or this OR level.
- Tactical Insight: Midfield runner with a pace rating of 5. Likely to need a strong gallop to play to her strengths.
- Key Insight: Questions about her ability to compete at this level, but a return to 6f should suit better than 7f.
Key Insights
- Strong Contenders: Cinque Verde and Pure Angel emerge as the primary players based on form, conditions, and tactical suitability. Both bring recent solid efforts into this race.
- Pace Dynamics: With an even forecasted pace, prominent runners like Cinque Verde and Shallow could dictate terms early. However, a closer like Pure Angel may capitalize if the leaders falter late.
- Handicap Challenges: Cinque Verde’s OR of 81 and Shallow’s unproven record at Class 4 raise slight doubts about their ability to dominate.
- Dark Horses: Just A Spark needs a form resurgence, while My Awele’s return to 6f could spark improvement.
Final Thoughts
- Confidence Levels:
- High: Pure Angel (well-handicapped, improving form).
- Moderate: Cinque Verde (consistent but unproven at this OR).
- Low: Shallow, Just A Spark, My Awele.
- Pace Fit: Even pace suits Pure Angel if delivered late; Cinque Verde can challenge if dictating up front.
Prediction: Pure Angel to edge out Cinque Verde, with the latter setting the pace.
3.05 Kempton (9 runners) racingtv.com Handicap 1m (1760 yards) Class 6, Standard To Slow, 4yo+, Win: £3140
This is a Class 6 handicap over 7f on Polytrack with a mixed field of seasoned campaigners and lightly raced sorts. The pace forecast indicates a steady pace, which might favor horses capable of adapting their run style or those with a strong finish.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Stella Hogan (IRE)
- Form: Won over this course and distance just five days ago, displaying tactical speed and stamina. Carries a 5lb penalty today.
- Distance: One win from five starts at 7f. Best results have been at 7f and 1m.
- Surface: Strong Polytrack performer with two wins and four places from eight runs.
- Class: Modest strike rate (15.4%) in this grade. Unproven at this OR or higher, which might limit her upside.
- Tactical Insight: Prefers to be held up; pace rating of 4 suggests she’ll need a well-timed ride.
- Key Insight: Reliable, but the quick turnaround and penalty raise questions about her ability to replicate her best form.
2. River Wharfe
- Form: Won at Wolverhampton over 7f a week ago, carrying a similar penalty today. Consistent performer for Tony Carroll’s yard.
- Distance: No wins from 20 attempts at 7f, though six placings indicate some competence.
- Surface: Decent record on all-weather (4 wins from 21 starts) but unconvincing on Polytrack.
- Class: Proven in this grade (6 wins from 31 attempts), suggesting he’s comfortable at this level.
- Tactical Insight: Likely to race prominently (pace rating of 4), giving him tactical options in a field without much pace.
- Key Insight: While consistent, his lack of wins at this trip and surface raises doubts.But the 7LB claim may help
3. Boujee Gold (Non-Runner)
4. No News (IRE)
- Form: Struggled in recent starts, including a disappointing effort at this course in November. Last win was over 7f but on better terms.
- Distance: Placed once in seven attempts at 7f; distance appears challenging.
- Surface: Modest Polytrack record (2 wins from 22 runs).
- Class: Limited success at this level (2 wins from 23 starts).
- Tactical Insight: Midfield runner (pace rating of 5) who lacks a potent finishing kick.
- Key Insight: Poor recent form and minimal success at this distance make him hard to fancy.
5. Villalobos (IRE)
- Form: Struggled over extended trips recently; return to 7f could spark improvement.
- Distance: One win from 12 attempts; not a strong profile at this trip.
- Surface: Solid Polytrack performer (4 wins from 19 runs).
- Class: Proven in this grade (5 wins from 32 attempts), though often over longer distances.
- Tactical Insight: Prominent racer with a high pace rating of 9, which could suit an evenly run race.
- Key Insight: Needs a career-best at this trip.
6. Heerathetrack
- Form: Consistent without winning recently; third at Wolverhampton over 7f last time out.
- Distance: Placed once in 10 attempts at this trip.
- Surface: Fair record on Polytrack (2 wins from 24 starts).
- Class: Modest strike rate (2 wins from 33 starts).
- Tactical Insight: Likely to be held up (pace rating of 5); may need a strong gallop to feature.
- Key Insight: Capable of placing but lacks the edge to win.
7. Reverberation
- Form: Struggling for consistency; ninth of 12 last time at Chelmsford over 1m.
- Distance: Four wins from 40 attempts at this trip.
- Surface: Modest Polytrack record (4 wins from 42 runs).
- Class: Proven in this grade but has only modest form overall.
- Tactical Insight: Midfield racer with a pace rating of 6; unlikely to be well-positioned if the race quickens.
- Key Insight: Faces stiff competition given his inconsistent form.
8. Sold The Dream
- Form: Beaten a nose over this course and distance in November; lightly raced.
- Distance: Placed once in two attempts at 7f; improvement possible.
- Surface: Yet to win on Polytrack but placed once in five starts.
- Class: Placed in Class 6; may not yet be fully exposed.
- Tactical Insight: Midfield runner (pace rating of 7); should be prominent in a steady pace scenario.
- Key Insight: Potential improver, though will need to step forward to win.
9. Dourado (IRE)
- Form: Out of form, with no wins in his last 10 starts.
- Distance: Three wins from 34 runs at this trip, including course and distance success.
- Surface: Two wins on Polytrack from 25 runs.
- Class: Modest performer in this grade.
- Tactical Insight: Midfield runner with limited finishing strength.
- Key Insight: Unlikely to feature without a dramatic return to form.
10. Dors Delight
- Form: Placed once in eight starts; struggling to make an impact.
- Distance: Placed once in four attempts at this trip.
- Surface: Modest all-weather record (0 wins, 1 place from 8 runs).
- Class: Uncompetitive at this level.
- Tactical Insight: Midfield runner; unlikely to handle the demands of this race.
- Key Insight: Outclassed and lacks form to inspire confidence.
Key Insights
- Top Contenders:
- Stella Hogan: Reliable performer with strong recent form but may struggle under a penalty.
- River Wharfe: Consistent and capable of another bold show despite lack of wins at this trip.
- Sold The Dream: Lightly raced and open to improvement.
- Pace Dynamics: A steady pace may suit prominent racers like Villalobos, while closers such as Heerathetrack may find it harder to quicken.
Final Thoughts.
- Shortlist
- Stella Hogan
- River Wharfe
- Sold The Dream
