Horse Racing Analysis
5.15 Newmarket (Rowley) – 6f 3yo Handicap Analysis (Class 5, Good Ground)
Friday 16 May 2025
This looks a deeper-than-usual Class 5 on the Rowley Mile, with several exposed types now racing on the edge of their eligibility threshold which means they will likely fall into class 6 after if they run poor — and a few lightly-raced sorts returning from layoffs that could have more to offer. The pace projection points to a strong early gallop, which brings potential for pace burn-up or at least emphasis on balance and positioning.
Pace Dynamics
A strong tempo looks assured. Sabrimento is a confirmed pace angle, and Midnight City, Rokuni and Forever My Prince all bring forward-going tendencies. My Mate Kev and Royal Accord are also likely to be up there early, while Camera Shy can track the leaders from a prominent slot. That mix points to a truly run race and should place demands on both tactical efficiency and finishing resilience.
Contenders with Interest
Camera Shy holds perhaps the most interesting profile. He scored over this course and distance last May in a novice that worked out well and has shaped with more encouragement than the bare form suggests since. He ran respectably at Windsor last time off 72, not far behind the pace throughout, and now gets cheekpieces for the first time. The return to Newmarket’s straight 6f looks ideal, and he’s now 1lb below his previous winning mark. On balance, he looks well treated and tactically well suited to how this is likely to unfold.
My Mate Kev is another who appeals on profile. He shaped well on his handicap debut at Doncaster when beaten only a length and a quarter in a race that was steadily run and tactically cagey. He’ll find this scenario more testing, but he appears progressive, and the return to a course with an open straight can suit. His third came off today’s mark of 70, and the 7lb claim looks well-judged.
Forever My Prince won with authority on nursery debut last summer at Lingfield, and though he returns from a break, he’s clearly got the latent ability to win a race of this type. That win came off 70 and he remains on just 72. His overall profile lacks strength in depth, and there’s a fair question around fitness after 310 days off, but on bare numbers he’s viable if tuned up.
Royal Accord arrives in the best form, having won two of his last three, albeit both in basement grade (Class 6). He carries 8-12 here but faces a much sharper field in terms of depth. He’s going the right way and should have pace to track, but whether he’s got the class to finish off strongly off a truer gallop remains to be seen.
Midnight City is likely to go forward and is now running from a mark of 72 after contesting stronger races last season. He hasn’t found his form this campaign and the switch to first-time visor feels like a last throw of the dice rather than a planned progression. Still, if able to settle better early and avoid duelling, he’s not without hope on raw ability, though the risk profile is high.
Others
Sabrimento is a hard horse to win with and has flattered to deceive in this grade for some time. Rogue Dynasty drops in trip and makes her handicap debut, but she showed little on turf or Tapeta and is hard to recommend on what we’ve seen. Bow Street is well treated on AW efforts but has shown nothing on turf. Alashos, Rokuni and Dapper Guest all arrive with something to prove and may not be ideally suited by the stiff 6f finish up the Rowley Mile.
Summary
The race should be run at a good clip with several natural pace angles, which plays into the hands of those able to settle behind the pace and finish strongly up the middle or stands’ side. Camera Shy is ideally suited on both track and tactical setup and now looks ready to strike again. My Mate Kev is open to further progress and looks attractively positioned under a capable 7lb claimer. Royal Accord’s honesty and form make him a fair inclusion for exotics, though he may find one or two better equipped for a race of this nature.
Shortlist:
Camera Shy
My Mate Kev
Forever My Prince (fitness caveat)
Royal Accord (credibility but rising in class)
