Todays Horse Race Analysis
3.30 Lingfield – 1m6f Handicap (Class 6, Good) – 11 June 2025
This Class 6 staying handicap at Lingfield brings together a group of exposed and lightly raced types over a demanding 1m6f trip. Conditions are good ground on a left-handed track, with an inside-drawn advantage often relevant here. The average OR sits at 55, and with a predicted even pace setup, the race looks likely to favour those who can sit just behind the leaders before making sustained challenges.
Pace Shape
The most probable race shape is even to modestly run, with multiple runners capable of racing prominently without being outright front-runners. Blenheim Lad and Incan Empire have both led or tracked the pace with effect, while Sawgrass, The Colorist and Charles Morin tend to race just off the speed. Black Smoke usually needs a slower-run race to deploy his late kick, but there’s little sign of a burn-up here. As such, horses able to hold a handy position without over-racing could find themselves best placed turning in.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Sydney Seabreeze (OR 60 | PR 57)
Trainer: S P C Woods | Jockey: Benjamin Sanderson
A consistent enough profile in terms of placing at this level, but lacks a finishing edge and often finds one or two too good when it matters. His PR is just below his current OR, suggesting limited wriggle room, and there’s little tactical advantage in how he’s ridden. Best performances have come in similar conditions, but he looks vulnerable for win purposes again.
2. The Colorist (OR 58 | PR 57)
Trainer: Karen Jewell | Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Hard to knock for consistency, but typically races behind the leaders without much power in the finish. His best efforts have come off slower tempos, and he rarely threatens to dominate. The OR vs PR relationship is neutral at best, and while he can run to his mark, there’s no obvious angle to suggest he’s well treated or ideally suited to today’s race shape.
3. Blenheim Lad (OR 57 | PR 60)
Trainer: Camilla Poulton | Jockey: Kieran O’Neill
One of the few in this field with a slightly progressive profile at the trip. Can make the running or track a modest pace and is tough to pass when in rhythm. PR sits 3lb above his current mark, and he’s proven he can maintain form on the Polytrack and turf. With a low draw and tactical versatility, he’s one of the key contenders.
4. Saxon Land (OR 56 | PR 55)
Trainer: J P Owen | Jockey: Hector Crouch
No recent form to support and no tactical speed to get involved early. The profile shows a preference for soft ground, and she’s yet to show anything under good conditions. While her OR isn’t far off her projected ceiling, there’s no indication she’s about to spring to life in this scenario. Unconvincing.
5. Incan Empire (OR 55 | PR 58)
Trainer: Harry Eustace | Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Strong candidate on multiple fronts. Last run was a clean effort, racing handily and quickening to lead inside the final furlong in a race that developed in similar fashion to what’s expected here. PR is +3 relative to mark, which is significant in a field of largely exposed types. Showed the ability to travel, quicken, and sustain a run under pressure. The stall position is less ideal (10), but with Kingscote on board and recent tactical proof, he’s rightfully on the shortlist.
6. Yarborough (OR 55 | PR 58)
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Tom Queally
Lightly raced relative to some here and has shaped as though he’s capable of a win at this level. That said, he’s yet to prove he stays 1m6f with authority, and has shown a tendency to flatten out late. PR suggests he’s not badly treated, but he’s more speculative than solid. Not dismissed, but comes with risk.
7. Sawgrass (OR 53 | PR 52)
Trainer: H Morrison | Jockey: David Probert
Placed the last twice under conditions close to this and tends to race off the pace before running on late. Consistency is there, but there’s no evidence she has a gear change, and PR confirms she’s operating around her ceiling. With no obvious tactical advantage, she’ll likely be staying on for minor honours at best.
8. Black Smoke (OR 52 | PR 54)
Trainer: Daniel Mark Loughnane | Jockey: George Wood
Has placed off similar marks but has needed a strongly run race to be most effective. He can quicken if covered up, but is vulnerable when pace lifts early — as it may do here. PR slightly exceeds OR, so he’s not poorly handicapped, but tactical setup feels suboptimal. Could be running on too late unless things collapse.
9. Charles Morin (OR 52 | PR 52)
Trainer: P M Phelan | Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Another who tends to sit just off the speed but lacks the late quality to get involved. PR equal to OR confirms a well-exposed profile, and recent runs haven’t hinted at anything beyond minor money. Likely to be outpaced when the race unfolds unless others underperform.
10. Easy Equation (OR 47 | PR 45)
Trainer: Chelsea Banham | Jockey: Joey Haynes
One of the oldest and most exposed in the field, with a poor record on turf and over this distance under today’s conditions. PR suggests he’s running above his ideal mark, and nothing in recent runs indicates a revival. Should struggle to land a blow.
Race Snapshot
Pace Forecast: Even gallop, with no out-and-out front-runner; suits handy types best.
Best Suited Runners (Pace + Profile + PR):
Incan Empire – tactically sound, improving, recent form confirms suitability.
Blenheim Lad – capable of dictating or sitting close, PR support.
Place-only Interest:
Sawgrass – reliable at this level, lacks finishing gear.
Black Smoke – can travel and pick up, but best when others overdo it early.
Verdict
Incan Empire looks the most complete option today. He shaped with authority last time, is running with his PR above current OR, and comes into a tactically suitable race under a jockey who should keep things simple. Blenheim Lad is another well-handicapped runner who could get the run of the race from a better draw. Among the rest, Sawgrass and Black Smoke can fill out the frame, but neither looks likely to finish strongest unless the tempo collapses late — which appears unlikely.
This is a race for solid, prominent runners with stamina and tactical poise. Incan Empire ticks all the right boxes.
7.10 Kempton (11 June 2025) - Class 5 Handicap (1m, Polytrack, Standard to Slow)
Race Profile: A 13-runner Class 5 handicap over one mile on the Polytrack at Kempton, now reduced to 12 following the non-runner Monopolise. The ATR pace forecast is ‘Even’, suggesting a fairly balanced tempo, with no dominant front-runner to dictate. Stamina will be tested late, but mid-div or handy positions may prove ideal if they settle well.
Pace Shape: The field lacks confirmed trailblazers. Giant and Port Road have raced handily before, while Newfangled and Double Time have at times been too aggressive early. Overall, it looks a blend of midfield-to-prominent runners without a guaranteed leader. Horses adaptable in positioning and proven in steadily-run races are favoured.
Runner-by-Runner Suitability Analysis:
1. Giant – Solid course record (1/12 with three places) and versatile surface form, but stamina for a strongly-run mile is unproven. Returns to Polytrack where better efforts have come, but now 0/12 at or above this OR. Pacy early types like him may get exposed if they over-race again.
2. Savvy Exchange – One-time winner at 1m on turf; yet to fire on AW (disappointing on sole try). Best 2024 effort was fair, but profile gives doubts about surface suitability. May be vulnerable late against stronger stayers.
4. Outgun – Blinkers on for first time but a patchy profile overall. One win from 16 starts, and stamina queries remain. Polytrack win came over further, and drop back to a flat mile raises doubts. Plenty to prove.
5. Ombrecell – Big step forward when winning over CD on handicap debut off 71. That came off a break, and he has scope for more. Course form, surface, trip, class all ticked. Rates as one of the best-profiled contenders today.
6. Port Road – Long-standing maiden (0/11), but often placed. Beaten favourite here last time when caught wide. Conditions ideal and trainer has had him knocking on the door. Strong each-way credentials again, though win doubt lingers.
7. Calanthe – Reliable on AW, especially with blinkers. Placed in all three CD starts and won off 68 two back. Drawn wide but adaptable. One of the more consistent profiles, capable if reproducing best.
8. Newfangled – Progressive this spring, winning twice on AW with cheekpieces. Runner-up off 71 latest behind Walson’s Law. Loves this surface, races well off strong pace, and thrives with headgear. Top profile contender in current form.
9. Monopolise – Non-runner (to be excluded).
10. Berry Clever – Best form at 7f; placed over a mile but unproven for full mile test at strong tempo. Form here is solid (2 wins), but shape of race may find him out late. Creditable, but place rather than win angle.
11. Dubai Beach – Unplaced in all three starts and poor record fresh. Returns from 46-day break off an opening mark of 70, but has plenty to prove and not shown competitiveness under any breakdown yet. Hard to recommend.
12. Wadacre Grace – Absent over a year. Strong 2023 form at this venue (CD winner), but trainer has struggled to get her back fresh before. Booking of C. Lee is a plus. Very capable at her best, but huge freshness concern.
13. Double Time – CD winner but out of form in 2024. Tongue tie and hood tried again, but recent runs suggest regression. Suspect profile even at his best and fading competitiveness.
14. Landing Board – 0/3, yet to place. Significant jockey booking but has looked limited on track and not obviously well-handicapped. Based on evidence, best watched.
Race Snapshot & Shortlist (12 runners):
Assessing all declared runners against today’s conditions (track, surface, trip, class, freshness, direction, and OR vs PR balance), the standout profiles are:
Shortlist:
Ombrecell – Unexposed, CD winner, up only 2lb, progressive, well-suited.
Newfangled – In-form, thriving with cheekpieces, strong AW record, class-viable.
Calanthe – Consistent at CD, fair draw, tactically versatile.
Port Road – Lacks a win but good placing profile, well-handicapped in context.
Of these, Ombrecell and Newfangled rate the most complete suitability profiles.
Verdict: This looks an open and compressed handicap on paper, but suitability filters narrow it sharply. Ombrecell has ideal conditions and room to progress again, while Newfangled has turned into a very dependable AW operator with a favourable setup. Calanthe remains solid and reliable, and Port Road continues to shape like a winner-in-waiting, though win doubts persist.
