6:30 Kempton – Race Analysis (11 Runners)
Overview
A Class 5, 6-furlong handicap at Kempton featuring a competitive field of 11 runners. The race offers a mix of veterans and younger prospects, many with proven ability at this level. With an average OR of 68, the field is tightly matched, and the standard-to-slow surface may benefit those with a proven all-weather record.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Tyger Bay
- Form: Mixed recent form but placed in his last two starts, indicating a return to form.
- Strengths: Proven at Kempton; versatile and often finishes strongly.
- Concerns: Aging 8yo who may find younger rivals improving past him.
- Confidence Level: Moderate – Strong place contender but needs everything to go right to win.
2. Above (FR)
- Form: Flashes of ability in recent starts, though largely inconsistent.
- Strengths: Drop in OR makes him potentially well-handicapped.
- Concerns: Rarely delivers a strong finishing effort; wide draw in Stall 11 is a disadvantage.
- Confidence Level: Low – Needs a big turnaround in form.
3. Hierarchy (IRE)
- Form: Placed twice in recent starts but finds it hard to win.
- Strengths: Consistent performer in handicaps; close to his best OR.
- Concerns: Tends to lack the extra gear to dominate competitive fields.
- Confidence Level: Moderate – Reliable for minor honors but a win is unlikely.
4. Grenham Bay (IRE)
- Form: Comes off a convincing win last time out.
- Strengths: Proven at Kempton; retains strong form; well-drawn in Stall 1 for a prominent run.
- Concerns: Carries a 5lb penalty for his last win, which might temper his advantage.
- Confidence Level: Very High – Strong winning chance if reproducing his latest form.
5. Gundogan
- Form: Has shown promise this season but hasn’t raced for 79 days.
- Strengths: Strong finisher and consistent placer when fit.
- Concerns: Long layoff and wide draw in Stall 10 are significant negatives.
- Confidence Level: Low – Needs the run and luck from a tough draw.
6. First Company (IRE)
- Form: Hit-and-miss recent record but placed second two starts ago.
- Strengths: Suited by this trip; lightly raced this season, so could still have improvement.
- Concerns: Inconsistent finishing effort and a long trip (124 miles) to this race.
- Confidence Level: Moderate – Could place but unlikely to win.
7. Mighty Gurkha (IRE)
- Form: Out of form for a prolonged period.
- Strengths: Has a strong historical record and is well-handicapped on his best form.
- Concerns: Poor recent form; first-time visor needs to spark improvement.
- Confidence Level: Low – A speculative wildcard at best.
8. Big R (IRE)
- Form: Solid recent performances, placing three times in last five starts.
- Strengths: Consistent on all-weather; handles Kempton well.
- Concerns: Rarely wins; needs a career-best effort to prevail here.
- Confidence Level: Moderate-High – Solid place prospect with an outside chance of winning.
9. Roach Power (IRE)
- Form: Out of form and struggling to find his best on the all-weather.
- Strengths: Well-handicapped based on historical turf form.
- Concerns: Poor all-weather record and fading efforts in recent races.
- Confidence Level: Low – Requires a dramatic return to form.
10. Runaround Sioux
- Form: Consistent in recent starts with strong efforts at this level.
- Strengths: Handles Kempton well; stays the trip strongly.
- Concerns: Needs a perfectly timed ride and strong pace to make her late run count.
- Confidence Level: High – Reliable for a place with a fair winning chance.
11. Man On A Mission
- Form: Winner over course and distance last month.
- Strengths: Excellent Kempton record; thrives in this grade; solid turn of foot.
- Concerns: Carries 5lb more than his last win; lacks consistency.
- Confidence Level: Very High – Top contender with proven form.
Predictions
Likely Winner
- Grenham Bay (IRE)
- Analysis: Comes into this race on the back of an impressive win and is well-drawn in Stall 1 to secure a prominent position. With solid Kempton form and a trainer in good form, he looks primed for another big run despite the penalty.
Likely Place
- Runaround Sioux
- Analysis: Consistent performer who thrives in this grade. Well-handicapped and with a strong all-weather profile, she is a reliable place prospect, especially if the race pace is strong.
Wildcard
- Mighty Gurkha (IRE)
- Analysis: On paper, Mighty Gurkha seems out of form, but he is significantly well-handicapped on his historical best. The addition of a first-time visor could reignite his old spark. If he runs to his prior Kempton standards, he could spring a surprise at big odds.
Conclusion
- Top Pick: Grenham Bay
- Place Contender: Runaround Sioux
- Wildcard: Mighty Gurkha
Kempton 7:00 Race Analysis and Final Selections
Overview
This 1-mile handicap at Kempton features a mix of seasoned handicappers and less-exposed horses. The race presents an interesting challenge, with several contenders appearing well-handicapped on past performances. Below is a detailed breakdown of each runner, with in-depth analysis provided for the Win, Place, and Wildcard selections, while the other runners receive concise evaluations.
In-Depth Selections
Win Selection: Drumstick
- Key Form: Placed 3rd at Newcastle (1m) last time, showing strong finishing ability. Prior to that, he stayed on well at Kempton over the same trip.
- Reasoning: Drumstick has demonstrated progress in his last two outings, particularly over today’s trip of 1 mile. His Kempton performance on Nov 20 (4th/12, 2.2L) stands out, as he closed strongly from a poor position. His handicap mark of OR 68 is fair, and he has shown the tactical versatility to sit closer to the pace if needed. The consistency in his finishes suggests he’s ready to capitalize on his form in this weaker contest.
- Confidence Rating: 7/10
Place Selection: Profitman
- Key Form: A recent win at Chelmsford (7f) followed by a narrow defeat at Southwell (1m).
- Reasoning: Profitman has been running with credit recently, and his Chelmsford win highlighted his ability to stay on strongly. While his best runs have been over 7f, his performance at Southwell (2nd, short-head) over 1 mile confirmed he handles the trip. His tendency to find trouble in running is a concern, but his strong late finishes make him a solid place contender in this field.
- Confidence Rating: 6/10
Wildcard Selection: Bernadine (IRE)
- Key Form: A win at Newcastle in October, followed by mid-division finishes in stronger handicaps.
- Reasoning: Bernadine’s win at Newcastle (1m) showed she has the class to win at this level. Her tendency to hold up in her races means she is reliant on a strong pace upfront, but the presence of several front-runners here could play to her strengths. The mare’s OR of 67 places her well within a competitive range, and her consistency on AW tracks (3 wins, 5 places from 13 starts) adds confidence. As an outsider, she offers significant value as a wildcard pick.
- Confidence Rating: 5/10
Other Runners
Beauty Generation (IRE)
- Key Points: Lightly raced on AW but has placed 4 times. Best recent run was a 3rd at Kempton (1m) in September. Poor runs since then raise concerns, but his OR of 66 provides scope for improvement. Needs to bounce back.
Clipsham La Habana
- Key Points: Reliable at 7f-1m but has struggled to get involved in recent runs. Best effort came at Newcastle (7f) earlier this month. Likely to play a minor role unless he finds significant improvement.
Enpassant (IRE)
- Key Points: Winless on AW but placed five times. Recent form is consistent without being spectacular, with 4th-place finishes at Lingfield and Wolverhampton over 1 mile. May struggle to land a blow against stronger rivals.
Night Arc
- Key Points: Two career wins, both on turf. AW record is poor (0 wins, 1 place from 11 starts). Recent runs have been uncompetitive, and he’s hard to recommend here.
Shamardal Star
- Key Points: Lightly raced for a 6-year-old and unplaced in seven career starts. His lack of AW form and poor showing last time at Newcastle make him difficult to support in this field.
Taskheer (IRE)
- Key Points: Well-handicapped at OR 54, but recent form is dire. He hasn’t been competitive since his Yarmouth win in 2023. Needs to show a major resurgence to feature here.
Beauty Generation (Wildcard Option)
- Key Points: Credible Kempton performances earlier this year make him a potential surprise player. However, consistency remains an issue.
Final Summary
- Win: Drumstick – Progressive form, suited by conditions, ready to deliver.
- Place: Profitman – Consistent performer with solid form, stays the trip well.
- Wildcard: Bernadine (IRE) – Strong AW performer, well-handicapped, reliant on pace.
