Horse Race Analysis 2.30 Lingfield – Class 6 Handicap – 2m (AW Polytrack)
Nine declared for this low-grade staying handicap, where tactical shape could prove decisive. This is a modest field in quality terms, but several come here off recent solid efforts, while others are searching for a spark. With only one likely out-and-out front-runner, pace efficiency and track position may decide matters more than brute ability.
Onesteptwosteps – 8yo gelding – OR 60 – Trainer: N J Gifford – Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Rated 10 on pace and is the clear potential leader. He showed glimpses of ability in four Flat starts last summer, finishing fifth at Kempton over 1m4f off 61. While unproven over this trip, he shaped like a galloper and wasn’t disgraced before reverting to chasing. Pulled up on reappearance in a handicap chase here earlier this month, but the return to the Flat and a likely solo lead makes him tactically interesting. Still, stamina and current well-being remain uncertain.
Verdict: Possible pace angle, but stamina and reliability are major questions.
Sydney Seabreeze – 4yo gelding – OR 59 – Trainer: S P C Woods – Jockey: Ben Sanderson
Consistent without progressing, placed only once in nine starts. Beaten favourite last time when fifth over 1m6f at Wolverhampton, but this longer trip could suit given his stout German pedigree. His Polytrack efforts haven’t been sparkling, but the pace setup might help him travel better here. Has tactical speed to track the leader without being caught wide.
Verdict: Profile suggests he can win races of this type, but remains unproven at the trip and on this surface.
Tango Sunset – 4yo filly – OR 62 – Trainer: R A Teal – Jockey: Joe Leavy (3)
Lightly raced and makes her return after 199 days off. Best effort came when a staying-on third over 2m1f at Wolverhampton in November off 63, where she travelled well into it. Placed twice on AW, including on Polytrack. Her two best runs came at this trip, and with a pace rating of 7, she could be one of the first to latch onto the likely leader. Her mark is unchanged, and if tuned up, she’s more dangerous than her profile suggests.
Verdict: Conditions ideal, may be underestimated. Strong returner if fitness holds.
Blenheim Lad – 5yo gelding – OR 57 – Trainer: Camilla Poulton – Jockey: J F Egan
A dual winner at 1m6f on Tapeta late last year before fading tamely at Kempton over 2m off 60 last month. That was his first run back off a break, so could come forward here. Typically races handily and could slot into a good stalking position. Polytrack record is mixed, but he’s shown enough over staying trips to warrant respect now fitter.
Verdict: Needs to bounce back, but capable if rediscovering winter form. Setup suits.
Balgowan – 6yo gelding – OR 55 – Trainer: J W Mullins – Jockey: T E Whelan
Arrives off a career-best win at Southwell over 2m, travelling strongly and asserting late. Lightly raced for his age and appears to be hitting stride over staying trips. Has placed on Polytrack and handled conditions well last time. Midfield tactically, he can pounce late and is unlikely to be fazed by any gallop scenario.
Verdict: Strong contender on current form. Has momentum and tactical flexibility.
Queensland Boy – 5yo gelding – OR 54 – Trainer: Ian Williams – Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh (5)
Produced a dominant 4-length win at Wolverhampton earlier this month, bouncing back emphatically off 54. Has placed at Lingfield before and is well enough suited to Polytrack, though all wins have come away from it. His record suggests he runs in streaks, and he’s proven over this distance. Tactically should slot into midfield. One of the more progressive profiles here.
Verdict: Solid claims off a wide-margin win. Can defy a small rise if holding form.
Smith – 9yo gelding – OR 52 – Trainer: Mrs L Richards – Jockey: R Kingscote
Seven-time course-and-distance winner and the clear track specialist in the field. Was a close second here last month off this mark, and his overall Polytrack strike rate remains strong. Races from off the pace but knows how to navigate Lingfield’s contours. Visor retained, and Kingscote booked again. No secrets with him, but he’s honest and goes well under these circumstances.
Verdict: Reliable CD operator who rarely runs a bad race here. Big player again.
Kevano Breeze – 5yo gelding – OR 52 – Trainer: M Madgwick – Jockey: William Carson
Still winless and yet to place in six career starts. Always held last time over a mile at Kempton and hard to weigh up at this new trip. On breeding, could stay, but there’s been little in the formbook to support that notion. Best run came over 1m3f but even that was well held. Held up and needs a strong pace collapse to get involved.
Verdict: Very difficult to fancy. Trip and class need to transform him.
Blonde Arrow – 4yo filly – OR 45 – Trainer: H Main – Jockey: Warren Fentiman (5)
Yet to place in four runs and looks a long-term project. Tried over 2m½f on Tapeta last time, where she again faded out. Pedigree suggests stamina, but there’s no baseline performance to build on. This is her lowest mark yet, but needs major improvement and is poorly drawn in stall 1 if she doesn’t start alertly.
Verdict: Unexposed, but no current evidence to recommend.
Summary and Tactical Shape
This looks likely to develop into a tactical affair. Onesteptwosteps may get an uncontested lead, with Sydney Seabreeze, Tango Sunset, and Blenheim Lad forming the main chasing group. Most of the others tend to sit midfield or further back, including likely contenders Queensland Boy, Smith, and Balgowan.
If the pace is steady, those with proven track craft (Smith) or tactical speed (Tango Sunset, Balgowan) may hold the edge. If the leader falters or an honest gallop unfolds, the stronger stayers such as Queensland Boy and Smith should come into it.
Shortlist
1. Smith
Relentless CD record (7 wins from 17), handled by a pro, and running well. Hard to knock in this grade. No questions on suitability, track, or rhythm.
2. Queensland Boy
Looked to have turned a corner last time – powered through the line over 2m1f. Danger if backing it up, especially as race fitness is assured and pace setup could help him.
3. Balgowan
Arrives off a win and suited by test. Might prefer Tapeta, and Southwell form can sometimes flatter, but he’s solid and still progressive enough at this level.
4. Tango Sunset
Unexposed and shapes like a 2m+ type. Has run well at Wolverhampton and could go forward from this draw, but fitness on return and profile depth still unproven.
.
4.30 Lingfield – Full Race Profile (29 May 2025)
Race Setup: 3yo Class 6 handicap over 6f on good to firm ground, straight course. Central stall bias, no draw extremes. Potential for a contested lead but nothing overly frenetic. Looks a medium-efficiency pace with a few pulling for position early. Ground quickens it slightly.
Ancient State – Martin Dunne | William Carson | OR 55
PR: 52 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 55
Lightly raced and improving. Won two starts back off 50 over 5f, travelled powerfully and stayed on well. Followed that with a creditable fourth over today’s C&D off 55, holding up in midfield but not quickening off a steady gallop. Has form on Tapeta and handled the rise to 6f. The tongue tie remains and he’s in a race lacking real class depth. Trainer doesn’t run many but has placed this well. Tactical versatility is an asset.
Rogue Endeavour – Grace Harris | Ray Dawson | OR 55
PR: 46 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 55
Still a maiden after 10 starts but closer to finding his level. Best run last time out when a fair fourth at Salisbury on good to firm — travelled better than before and stuck to the task. Has six runs at the trip, form figures suggest he’s best with some ease in the ground and a strong pace. Doesn’t find much under pressure. Cheekpieces again but doesn’t win many races for the yard.
Atherstone Beau – K Burke | T P Queally | OR 55
PR: 62 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 55
First run for Burke after a handover from Roger Fell. Fourth last time (5f) when denied a clear run and staying on — shaped like 6f might be what she wants now. Cheekpieces applied for the first time which is a significant angle for Burke. Pace map says she’ll be mid-pack, potentially with cover. Likes quicker ground and will get it here. Big player if settling into new surroundings.
All Too Beautiful – Roger Teal | Joe Leavy (3) | OR 55
PR: 46 | Claim: 3lb | Adjusted: 52
Didn’t land a blow in maidens and well held on handicap debut at Brighton. May have needed that off the break, and returns here with more favourable race shape. Still, the Teal yard hasn’t been firing and the form of her maidens isn’t working out. Hard to make a strong case without deeper evidence.
Castellina – James Fanshawe | Kyle Strydom | OR 54
PR: 52 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 54
Sixth on return at Chelmsford wasn’t without merit. Travelled well but got caught flat-footed before finishing with purpose. Has ability but takes time to warm up. This is a slight step up in tempo and ground will be faster — jury still out on whether she wants it rattling quick. Best watched for now unless strong in paddock.
Surprise Again – J R Jenkins | Pat Dobbs | OR 50
PR: 0 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 50
Three novice runs over further, all heavy defeats. Drops to 6f on handicap debut. Booking of Dobbs is eye-catching on paper, but the form offers absolutely no encouragement. Pace rating high but unlikely to finish off his race. Complete unknown, but a massive leap of faith.
Time After Time – Heather Main | Ryan Kavanagh (5) | OR 47
PR: 0 | Claim: 5lb | Adjusted: 42
Another handicap debutant with three quiet novice spins. Drops back from 7f and switches to turf. Low mileage but no evidence yet that she’ll improve dramatically for this move. Can’t rule her out in this grade, but need to see more.
Top Biller – Birkett yard | Dylan Hogan | OR 46
PR: 49 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 46
Won a nursery off 47 on AW last backend and hinted at returning to form last time when not disgraced in a muddling Chelmsford race. Blinkers back on, tongue tie remains. Has a middle-to-high pace rating and could be well suited by this setup. Whether he’s as effective on turf remains a question, but he’s starting to shape like he’s coming back to himself.
Bluesy Moon – Mike Attwater | Oliver Searle (5) | OR 46 (1lb out of handicap)
PR: 44 | Claim: 5lb | Adjusted: 41
Two recent placed efforts suggest she’s holding form. Ground suits, and she travelled well last time before being outstayed late. Her 11-race record without a win is a red flag, but she’s been placed on firm ground and is at least doing better than earlier in her campaign. Lacks a gear change but may sneak into the frame if the race falls apart.
Lady Shinto – Charlie Wallis | R Kingscote | OR 46 (1lb out)
PR: 43 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 45
Didn’t fire last time at Chelmsford over 7f but drops back in trip here which may suit. Kingscote up is positive but this is another with more promise than substance. The hood goes on for the first time, and trainer’s form with this type is mixed. Hard to commit with any certainty.
Oldbury Lad – G Harris | Kieran O’Neill | OR 46 (1lb out)
PR: 40 | Claim: none | Adjusted: 45
Bit more to like about his recent Salisbury fifth when never able to get a clean run. Shaped as if capable of better and ground was quick that day. Cheekpieces seemed to help and are retained. Runs from just out of the handicap again. Minor place shout if repeating that effort and getting a smoother passage.
Runnindown A Dream – J R Jenkins | Oliver Carmichael (7) | OR 46 (9lb out)
PR: 40 | Claim: 7lb | Adjusted: 37
Another maiden showing little in five starts. Out of the weights and running with a very inexperienced 7lb claimer. No positives in the profile — watching brief.
Shortlist – Top 3 Profiles
1. Atherstone Beau – New yard (Burke) a massive plus, cheekpieces on, fast ground suits. Profiled well for this and tactically versatile.
2. Ancient State – Honest improver, won over 5f and handled 6f last time. Tongue tie helps. Well placed at this level.
3. Top Biller – Signs of revival last time, strong pace rating, 6f suits, blinkers back on. Value angle if building on latest.
