Goodwood 3yo Handicap Preview (7f, Class 2)13.30
Seventeen 3yos line up for a competitive and informative Class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs on fast summer ground at Goodwood. With several unexposed profiles clashing with form horses whose marks are catching up, the setup and pace map could play a decisive role.
Pace Map & Shape
There’s credible pace from multiple angles, with Power Fizz, Best Rate, and Yankee Dude all having shown a willingness to race forward. Principality and Cyclonite have pace for 6f and can be handy, while others like Rare Change and Silver Ghost tend to sit midfield or just off the leaders. With this amount of early intent, the race should be truly run, with tracking positions from middle draws likely ideal.
Power Fizz – OR 91 | PR 87 | Pace 9
Three wins from his last four start him off as one of the most progressive in the field. He made all to win over this trip at Ascot last time, form that’s worked out well. However, he’s now 5lb higher and faces more pressure up front. There’s no claim to offset that, and while conditions suit, he’ll need to sustain a genuine gallop under a wider draw in 16. Running right to his rating, but no longer ahead of it.
Best Rate – OR 85 | PR 85 | Pace 7
A solid, improving type who was beaten only a nose by Rare Change at York last time. Fast ground suits, and he shaped like the winner for most of that run. The Hannon yard has a fine record in this race type, and he holds his rating well. Prominent style could be well suited to this setup, and his draw in 7 looks ideal to slot into a stalking position. Live player.
Yankee Dude – OR 90 | PR 87 | Pace 7 (Claimed to 85)
Two from three overall, and the only defeat came on turf. He’s a fluent traveller with a strong finish and has been kept back for this after winning a novice at Kempton with authority. Gets a 5lb claim from Ethan Jones and comes out 2lb well-in on adjusted figures. The key question is turf ability, but his action and pedigree suggest it shouldn’t be a major barrier. Untapped potential.
Rare Change – OR 83 | PR 73 | Pace 2 (Claimed to 78)
Back-to-back wins, including the York nose defeat of Best Rate, but ran to just 73 that day. The PR-OR gap suggests he’s now vulnerable off 83 despite the claim. Stays this trip well and enjoys fast ground, but he may have hit a ceiling unless he takes another step forward on the clock.
Silver Ghost – OR 87 | PR 87 | Pace 5
Won decisively at Newmarket last time out, dispatching a next-time-out winner by two lengths. That was a peak run, and she now moves into this tougher context off a fully accurate rating. Can hold form, but no margin for error on figures. The draw in 6 gives her a chance to sit close enough, and she’s a strong profile for the places.
Mr Chaplin – OR 96 | PR 86 | Pace 5
Won a nursery over this course and distance last season on good to firm, but he returns from 253 days off and is 8lb higher. Held his form in deeper company later in 2023 but needs to have improved again to be competitive off 96. PR suggests he’s at least 10lb wrong, and although connections are respected, others appeal more for today.
Uncle Don – OR 96 | PR 92 | Pace 4
Another who mixed it at a good level as a juvenile, including a Listed second. Fifth at Newmarket on return over 6f, shaping like the run was needed. Handles fast ground, and the step back to 7f should suit. PR of 92 puts him closer to being competitive, but his form tailed off slightly late last season. Capable, but the draw in 3 may demand an early move to hold position.
Miss Nightfall – OR 87 | PR 87 | Pace 3
Highly consistent, placing on 4 of 5 starts and beaten only 1¾ lengths in a well-contested fillies’ race over this course and distance last autumn. Progressive filly who may just need the run after 241 days off. PR and OR are in sync; unlikely to be thrown in, but capable of a big run if tuned up.
Bob Mali – OR 89 | PR 89 | Pace 8
Slightly misjudged the pace at Chester last time when well backed and over-raced early. Handles a range of ground but may ideally want a bit of ease. This trip remains unproven on pedigree and style. PR is accurate but stamina doubts linger.
Brighton Boy – OR 88 | PR 86 | Pace 6
Form from last season reads well, including a York win and a second at Newmarket. Proven on good to soft but may need this after 231 days off. PR-OR rating is fair, but he may get caught a little wide from stall 15 without significant cover.
Cyclonite – OR 86 | PR 80 | Pace 5
Reliable but exposed profile. Consistent at 6f and has tactical pace, but stamina at 7f has looked questionable. PR suggests he’s now 6lb wrong for this level, and although blinkers help sharpen him, the trip is the nagging issue.
Principality – OR 91 | PR 84 | Pace 5 (Claimed to 88)
Won on debut here but has been inconsistent since. Reappeared in the same 6f Newmarket race as Uncle Don and Bob Mali and finished similarly. PR says he’s still a few pounds shy of his mark, though he may come forward for the run.
Tuco Salamanca – OR 83 | PR 74 | Pace 3
Dual 7f winner on softer ground. Strong early-season form has since levelled off. PR leaves him around 9lb shy of what’s required, and he’s now up in class and facing better opposition. Solid attitude, but numerically held.
Summary & Shortlist
This is a well-contested and class-deep handicap with a range of potential improvers. A few come here peaking, but several hold no secrets from the assessor.
Shortlist
Best Rate – Solid profile, improving, holding PR vs OR well. Strong tactical fit.
Yankee Dude – Lightly raced, 2lb well-in on figures. Needs turf confirmation, but genuine upside.
Silver Ghost – Peaked last time, stable form, suited by ground and shape. Still progressing.
Power Fizz – Respected for recent form but now at his ceiling. Will be asked a serious question from the front.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on Yankee Dude as a developing handicapper and monitoring Best Rate’s tactical setup from stall 7, which could prove crucial. In a race where pace may collapse late, tracking types with proven staying ability at this trip are favoured.
7.00 Windsor – 3yo Class 5 Handicap – 6f (Good, Straight)
Nine 3yos line up over the straight six at Windsor in a tight Class 5 where profile clarity could trump surface unknowns. Key themes here: a sharp pace blend (no absolute leader but 4-5 with prominent intent), a course that rewards rhythm over raw speed, and a field stacked with exposed types bar a couple still holding upside. Here’s the field runner by runner.
Pont Neuf
Takes a significant class drop and now fitted with first-time cheekpieces. He’s been running consistently in higher grades, including Class 2 and Class 4 events, and was well found in the market when beaten 7 lengths in a Doncaster 5f handicap last time. That was on fast ground and he shaped like one needing more cover and maybe tempo to chase. Both career wins came over 5f, and while the pedigree offers 6f scope, his two efforts at this trip have lacked fluency. Current mark of 75 is unchanged and his form when racing in Class 5 or lower is non-existent. Holds some interest based on pace angle and grade drop but no wins or places from three efforts off this kind of OR.
Far Above The Law
Been campaigned at a fair level. Put together three solid placed efforts at the back end of last season and shaped well enough when a 4.25-length fifth on reappearance at Ripon, fading late. That was off today’s mark of 75, and it’s notable he’s 1/2 in Class 5 company and 1/5 at the trip. His win came over this distance on good to firm, and he’s been competitive from marks in the 70s previously. Conditions suit and he’s more genuine than many. Profiled like one with a win still in him from this mark with the right scenario.
Kinswoman
Hasn’t done much wrong in three maidens, placing twice and most recently shaping with quiet promise over 7f at Doncaster, where she was third to a progressive type. Drops in trip and makes handicap debut from a mark of 73. That’s workable judged on the form, though there’s no hard evidence yet of her being ahead of her mark. All runs so far have been on sound surfaces, and she’s run with efficiency without showing a turn of foot. Trainer rarely wastes a handicap debut though, and the drop back to 6f could sharpen her up. Strong profile for one still unexposed.
Toy Soldier
Seven-race maiden with a win over 7f at Musselburgh in blinkers last season but has regressed since. Down in trip after shaping flat in three runs this spring, including when 6 lengths adrift over 7f at Lingfield latest. That race didn’t unfold ideally for him, but overall he’s shown very little since being rated 78. Currently on 73, but he’s 0/3 at 6f and is starting to carry that ‘had his chance’ look. On paper, this is his level, but he needs to prove the drop in trip reignites something.
Fleetwater
Consistent type who’s campaigned regularly and generally kept in fair shape. She won here last season over this course and distance off a mark of 70 and now runs off 73 after another solid C&D effort last time when fourth behind Rare Change. That came on good to firm, and she has a decent record at Windsor: one win, one place from three course runs. She’s 1/4 in Class 5 and her only win came in this grade. Bit more exposed than some, but if the race favours runners who can sit just off the pace, she’ll be in the argument. Reliable.
Massimo Blue
All form to date on artificial surfaces and makes turf debut here. Scored comfortably in a Kempton 6f handicap two runs back and was far from disgraced at Southwell last time when lacking a clear run late on. Form of that race worked out reasonably and he remains off the same mark. His pedigree doesn’t scream turf but it’s usable enough, and the stable has quietly improved him this spring. Off 70 here and one of the few in the field with genuine upside still to come, but he’s unproven under these conditions.
Dream Out Loud
Three early runs were quiet, but he took a decent step forward when winning a 6f Kempton handicap on handicap debut last month, beating Fleetwater by 1.5 lengths. That came off 64 and he now runs from a 6lb higher mark of 70. Interesting that connections pitch him straight into a turf version of that contest – it’s his turf debut but his run style and frame suggest he should be fine with it. Trainer is in strong recent form and this gelding showed the ability to travel and quicken off a decent gallop. Very much respected with scope to improve again.
Valsharah
Still a maiden but has now placed in his last three starts, including a solid third behind Distant Rumble here over this same C&D last month. Ran off today’s mark of 67 there and was a beaten favourite. Yet to win in 10 starts but has a few things in his favour here: he’s placed twice in Class 5, placed here, and handles the ground. Slight stamina doubts linger at 6f if it becomes a war late, but he travels well and clearly retains trust from connections. He needs a break to go his way but is knocking.
Claim That Smile
Has looked very limited so far in three runs, all on the AW. No progress yet and he was 11 lengths adrift when last seen at Wolverhampton in January. Trainer fits a first-time tongue tie and gives him a spin on turf, but the form’s too weak to gauge how competitive he’ll be. He’s pitched in off 60 and even with the 3lb claim he’s 10-15lbs off what’s required to make any sort of shortlist. Needs a major leap forward.
Summary
This has a few likeable angles but also several who’ve had their go. Dream Out Loud is progressive and unexposed – Kempton form looked genuine and the switch to turf shouldn’t hinder. Kinswoman is open to more and represents a yard rarely far off with these types. Far Above The Law looks to be coming to the boil and is one of few with both track-suited pace and Class 5 form upside. Fleetwater brings course form and honesty, while Valsharah has placed C&D form but needs to prove he can win.
Shortlist
Dream Out Loud
Kinswoman
Far Above The Law
Fleetwater (solid if not flashy)
