6.00 Kempton (9 runners) Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap 1m (1760 yards) Class 5, Standard To Slow, 4yo+, Win: £4187 Avg OR : 64, Median OR : 66
Kempton 6:00 PM Analysis: Comprehensive Horse-by-Horse Breakdown
Tonight’s contest at Kempton over a mile promises to be an intriguing Class 6 Handicap, featuring a mix of profiles and strategies. Here’s an in-depth analysis of each runner:
1. Classic Speed (IRE)
Profile: A likely frontrunner, Classic Speed is well-suited to Kempton’s Polytrack surface and 1-mile distance, boasting 2 wins from 4 runs at the track. Its prominent racing style is an asset in lower-grade handicaps, especially when left uncontested upfront.
Form: Consistent in similar conditions, with the ability to dictate terms.
Key Strength: Proven ability to stay competitive in Class 6 company, especially when allowed to lead.
Key Concern: Vulnerable if forced into a duel for the lead.
2. Beauty Generation (IRE)
Profile: A solid campaigner but appears close to its ceiling in terms of competitiveness. While winless in 7 starts at Kempton, it often runs into the frame and has shown the ability to challenge late.
Form: Reliable but rarely dominant, its performances suggest a horse that thrives when chasing leaders rather than dictating.
Key Strength: Stamina for 1 mile and a sharp turn of foot.
Key Concern: Limited upside, possibly reliant on others faltering.
3. Lunarscape
Profile: A versatile performer but inconsistent, with flashes of form on the all-weather. Yet to fully deliver at Kempton and lacks a standout recent performance.
Form: Showed promise in lower-grade company but struggles to match the leaders when pace increases.
Key Strength: Can plug on for minor places if the pace collapses.
Key Concern: Lacks the tactical speed to compete with more progressive types.
4. Chourmo (IRE)
Profile: Best performances have come over longer trips and undulating tracks, suggesting Kempton’s Polytrack may not play to its strengths.
Form: Struggles in similar conditions, and its best form appears behind it.
Key Strength: Stamina to stay on late if the pace is overly hot.
Key Concern: Suspect at this trip and track.
5. Enpassant (IRE)
Profile: Consistent at finding minor placings without showing a strong winning edge. Prefers a strong pace to aim at but lacks the finishing kick to capitalize.
Form: Competitive in this class but winless in 15 attempts over 1 mile.
Key Strength: Consistency in running to its level.
Key Concern: Limited finishing ability, reliant on circumstances.
6. Fihrayn (IRE)
Profile: Lightly raced and open to improvement, but lacks any standout form to suggest it can compete effectively in this field. Struggles to find rhythm at Kempton.
Form: Poor runs in recent outings.
Key Strength: Unexposed, though needing significant improvement.
Key Concern: Form does not justify serious consideration.
7. Egoiste (USA)
Profile: Experienced with occasional strong performances on the all-weather, but struggles to maintain consistency.
Form: Sporadic success, but unreliable in terms of replicating efforts.
Key Strength: When in form, can produce a strong run.
Key Concern: Hard to trust based on recent outings.
8. Kitaro Kich (IRE)
Profile: Experienced but unreliable. Shows moments of ability but struggles to deliver when conditions don’t align perfectly.
Form: Rarely runs to its peak and lacks recent form to inspire confidence.
Key Strength: Capable of hitting the frame when the pace suits.
Key Concern: Inconsistent and appears exposed.
9. Night Arc
Profile: Has shown glimpses of promise but struggles to translate ability into wins. Kempton has not proven fruitful in previous visits.
Form: Has been competitive but often finds one or two too strong.
Key Strength: Versatile and can adapt to different setups.
Key Concern: Unreliable at producing winning efforts.
10. The Pug (IRE)
Profile: Well-handicapped and proven on the all-weather, but fitness and consistency remain concerns. Two wins from six at similar trips show potential.
Form: Sporadic but capable of delivering a surprise.
Key Strength: Suited to this grade and track type.
Key Concern: Needs the race to pan out perfectly.
Race Dynamics and Conclusion
The race hinges on Classic Speed (IRE) being able to secure an uncontested lead. Its Kempton record and front-running style make it the most likely winner, especially in a Class 6 contest where tactical speed is often decisive. Beauty Generation (IRE) represents the biggest threat, but its inability to win at this track tempers confidence. The Pug (IRE) and Night Arc are interesting for places if the race breaks down late.
Shortlist:
- Classic Speed (IRE)
- Beauty Generation (IRE)
- The Pug (IRE)
Kempton 8:30 –
The 8:30 at Kempton presents an intriguing staying handicap over 2 miles. While the favorite, Comte De Loir, appears to have the market cornered as a heavily odds-on contender, the real value for punters lies in the place market, where several runners have strong credentials to challenge for minor honors.
Race Overview
This is a Class 5 handicap contested on Polytrack. The pace is expected to be even, with no standout front-runner to force a relentless gallop. Such conditions often favor tactically versatile horses who can stay close to the pace and make a late move. Let’s analyze the field and highlight runners offering the most value in the place market.
The Likely Pace Scenario
- Leader: Percy Jones – Reliable pace angle, often prominent in his races. Likely to lead or sit handy.
- Prominent Runners: Doublethetrouble, The Craftymaster – These two are likely to race close to the lead, a position that suits the race profile.
- Hold-Up Runners: Haliphon, Zivaniya, Orchestra – These runners will need the pace to collapse to make a significant impact late on.
Form Analysis
1. Percy Jones
- Profile: A consistent performer in staying handicaps, with a solid record on the all-weather. Placed in 50% of his starts at this trip and ran well for third at Wolverhampton last time.
- Strengths: Stamina proven, tactically versatile.
- Concerns: Vulnerable to stronger finishers.
- Place Potential: Strong, given his consistency at similar distances.
2. The Craftymaster
- Profile: A proven all-weather performer with seven career wins, though his recent form has been patchy. Returns to Class 5 company, which is more suitable.
- Strengths: Stamina; proven ability in this grade.
- Concerns: Needs to rediscover his best.
- Place Potential: Moderate – capable if he bounces back to form.
3. Orchestra
- Profile: Dual-purpose horse who mixes hurdling and flat runs. Poor all-weather record but retains potential after a solid hurdling win earlier this season.
- Strengths: Well-handicapped; capable of improvement.
- Concerns: No form on Polytrack; inconsistent.
- Place Potential: Moderate – needs improvement but not ruled out.
4. Haliphon
- Profile: Five-time winner on turf but winless on the all-weather. Struggled in recent starts and has stamina to prove at this trip on Polytrack.
- Strengths: Class; staying ability proven on turf.
- Concerns: Surface and current form.
- Place Potential: Limited – needs significant improvement.
5. Yorksea
- Profile: A useful performer in the past, now starting fresh with a new yard. Stamina proven but inconsistent and temperamental over hurdles last season.
- Strengths: Stays the trip; cheekpieces could help.
- Concerns: First run for new trainer; unproven on Polytrack.
- Place Potential: Moderate – an unknown quantity but has the stamina.
6. Comte De Loir
- Profile: The clear favorite and likely winner, based on his progressive profile. Excellent second at Southwell last time and has scope to improve further.
- Strengths: Well-handicapped; improving.
- Concerns: None apparent – holds strong claims.
- Place Potential: Solid – should dominate this field.
7. Le Rouge Chinois
- Profile: A three-time winner but inconsistent and last won over a year ago. Below-par efforts this winter, though cheekpieces offer some hope.
- Strengths: Proven at the trip and surface.
- Concerns: Lack of recent form; limited upside.
- Place Potential: Limited – others appeal more.
8. Doublethetrouble
- Profile: A consistent performer in staying handicaps with recent solid efforts at Lingfield and Newcastle. Handles this surface and trip well.
- Strengths: Reliable; proven stayer.
- Concerns: Often runs well without winning.
- Place Potential: Strong – consistent and well-suited to conditions.
9. Zivaniya
- Profile: A dual course-and-distance winner who has slipped to a winnable mark. Finished fifth at Newcastle last time, shaping well before weakening late.
- Strengths: Loves Kempton; well-handicapped.
- Concerns: Needs to sustain effort better.
- Place Potential: Strong – track record and conditions suit.
Best Place Market Candidates
- Doublethetrouble – Consistent stayer who thrives on the all-weather. He is dependable in this grade and should be thereabouts.
- Zivaniya – A proven course specialist who has the ability to grab a minor placing under ideal conditions.
- Percy Jones – Likely to race prominently and stay on, making him a solid each-way option.
- The Craftymaster – If he can rediscover his old form, he’s more than capable of placing in this company.
Verdict
The odds-on favorite Comte De Loir looks hard to oppose for the win, but the real betting interest lies in the place market. Horses like Doublethetrouble, Zivaniya, and Percy Jones offer excellent value for finishing in the top three. The lack of strong early pace could favor tactically versatile runners like Doublethetrouble, while Zivaniya’s Kempton record makes him a compelling candidate.
For punters seeking value, backing Doublethetrouble and Zivaniya and maybe Haliphon in the place-only market appears to be the most logical strategy.
