Horse Race Analysis
Thirsk 3.20 – Class 4 Handicap (1m4f, 3yo) | May 17, 2025
Race Profile, Tactical Shape and Shortlist Insight
A small-field handicap over 1m4f on fast ground provides fertile ground for reading intent, positioning and projection. This Class 4 for three-year-olds sits slightly above standard in strength, with an average OR of 76, a median of 73, and several unexposed profiles now entering deeper waters. Thirsk’s left-handed track and quick conditions typically favour rhythm and tactical versatility rather than sheer stamina, and this race lacks any obvious out-and-out front-runner.
There’s a reasonable chance this develops into a race of positioning and controlled tempo — a contest where those able to hold a handy spot and quicken will find themselves at an advantage over those relying on a more galloping test.
Raulin arrives as the clear and most proven answer. He won with authority over 1m2f at Redcar on good to firm ground earlier this month, doing so off a mark of 75 in a manner that suggests his revised OR of 82 still underestimates his current capability. The performance rating of 85 backs that visual impression, and the trip stretch to 1m4f looks well within range given how he shaped through the line. His only win came on quick turf, and his overall profile is that of a late-developing improver being brought through the grades with intent. His tactical adaptability makes him well suited to this field composition, and he stands out as the most logical selection on multiple fronts: PR vs OR alignment, ground, pace setup and trainer development arc.
The most interesting contender from a progression angle is Arkinthestars, who hacked up in a Ripon maiden by nine lengths last time. She moves into handicap company for the first time and does so off a plausible opening mark of 73. She has shown enough tactical speed to stay prominent, and while this will be her first test against geldings in a true handicap scenario, her profile is upwardly mobile. Her performance rating of 74 already sits a tick above her current mark, and there may be a good deal more in the tank. The only minor query is how she copes with a more compressed field where things tighten up late — the maiden win was visually impressive but came from a solo ride off the front.
By contrast, Edge Ofthe Unknown is rated similarly on performance metrics — also recording an 85 — but that came on the all-weather. His one turf run lacked fluency and finish, and while the cheekpieces might help him channel more, there’s no hard evidence he is as effective on this surface or under these conditions. On balance, his profile flatters to deceive.
Hallelujah U and West Tyrone both look to be on the wrong side of their marks currently, while Atlantic Sunset shapes like a galloper who might improve over middle distances in time, but makes his turf debut here and remains a raw proposition. Paratrooper is perhaps the most difficult to assess. His PR of 75 suggests he might be able to justify his current rating of 73 eventually, but his racing manner and effort at Doncaster didn’t scream that he’s ready to capitalise just yet.
Conclusion
This race has a straightforward read at its core: Raulin arrives as a proven winner on ground, trip and tactical shape — and has already run to a mark above his current OR. He brings substance and suitability in equal measure. Arkinthestars is the obvious potential threat, but must now back up a visually dominant maiden performance in a race where she won’t be gifted the same lead. Edge Ofthe Unknown is rated well numerically, but his profile lacks the turf conviction of those above.
Shortlist
Raulin – Performance-backed handicap winner with more to come at the trip
Arkinthestars – Upwardly mobile filly, tactically sound, opening mark looks fair
Paratrooper – Bred for this but unconvincing so far; market check advised
This has the feel of a race where simplicity might prevail. Raulin sets the bar, and if he runs to form, he’ll take some pegging back.
Doncaster 7.48 – Class 4 Handicap (6f, 3yo) | May 17, 2025
Race Profile, Key Contenders and Performance Angles
A straight six-furlong handicap on fast ground at Doncaster offers a clean sprinting test for these ten three-year-olds. The makeup is competitive, but not overwhelming in depth, and the tempo should be honest without boiling over. With stalls positioned in the centre, no obvious draw bias exists, and the race will likely hinge on tactical rhythm, performance realism, and how horses handle pressure through the midsection.
This is a typical spring sprint at Doncaster, where speed, balance and surface suitability count for more than deep stamina. Several arrive unexposed or fresh from early-season novice or maiden wins, while others are trying to rediscover their spark under less demanding conditions.
At the head of the weights is Mission Command, who ran flat when fifth at Chester earlier this month. That run, however, came in Class 3 company over a sharp turning five furlongs and was likely needed after a lengthy absence. His best form has come on good or good-to-firm ground, and he previously placed over this course and distance in a race that worked out well. He’s already a dual winner, including off 82 at Ascot, and now runs off 86. That puts him close to his ceiling unless further progress is unlocked, but the return to six furlongs, a more galloping layout and a slightly calmer class setting should all play to his strengths. His performance rating of 84 suggests he’s operating just below his mark but not disqualified on figures.
Mythical Composer offers a more forward-looking profile. He’s already run to a performance rating of 86 off a mark of 84, meaning he’s still operating ahead of the handicapper. A winner over six furlongs on fast ground last autumn, he was a shade keen and didn’t settle when well held on his reappearance at Southwell. That run came on the all-weather and looked more like a conditioning effort than a full tilt. With a high cruising speed and a form record that features a placing at this level, he’s well placed to bounce back in more suitable conditions.
Tawasol made all to win a Brighton maiden in authoritative fashion last time, settling beautifully when returned to six furlongs. That looked a soft enough race on the clock, but he did it with style, and the visual impression was strong. He now makes his handicap debut from 82, which could be workable, though he’ll face more pressure for the lead here and might not get things all his own way. Still, he’s improving and arrives in winning rhythm, so he’s respected as a progressive type for a shrewd yard.
Dark Rosa is one of the more interesting runners from a weight perspective. Thanks to a 5lb claim, she runs off an effective mark of 69, yet her recent efforts, including a close third over 6f at Leicester, suggest she’s capable of performing to 77. That gives her the clearest PR-to-OR advantage in the field. She’s already a Class 4 winner, handles quick ground, and has a strong closing style. From stall 7, she should get a tow into the race and looks well-treated against exposed males.
Ay Gee Ell is another who enters calculations based on adjusted ratings. With a 3lb claim, he effectively runs off 73 and has posted form figures that suggest he’s operating at 77. While still a maiden, he’s been narrowly beaten multiple times and doesn’t lack for honesty. The trip is a question mark, as he’s yet to win or place over six furlongs, but his running style suggests he might benefit from the stretch out under a quiet ride.
McIntosh is bred in the purple, by Kingman out of a Frankel mare, and brings an improving profile to the table. His current mark of 74 looks feasible, especially with cheekpieces are applied for the first time — often a signal of intent from this yard. He was beaten narrowly in a Class 5 last time but stayed on strongly and shapes as a colt heading in the right direction.
This looks a race where the lightly raced and progressive types may hold the upper hand, especially those who have already shown they can handle quick ground and are tactically adaptable.
Shortlist contenders are led by Mythical Composer, whose form and PR figures are the most convincing. Tawasol will be popular, but now faces a stiffer test for control. Dark Rosa and McIntosh both appeal as well-treated improvers, and Ay Gee Ell could surprise from a low weight. Mission Command, for all his class, may be one run short or in the grip of the assessor, though the change in setup gives him a fair chance of bouncing back.
This is a race with multiple live chances but grounded evidence points toward the more progressive and weight-efficient runners. Timing, as ever in sprint handicaps, will be everything.
