Southwell 11:55 – In-Depth Horse Race Analysis & Free Horse Racing Tips
The 11:55 at Southwell is a competitive Class 6 handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta, featuring several exposed runners with mixed profiles. Some are course specialists, while others are trying to rediscover past form. Pace, stamina, and current well-being will be key factors in determining the outcome.
Race Overview & Key Factors
- Track: Southwell (Tapeta)
- Distance: 1m4f
- Class: 6 (Low-grade handicap)
- Pace Projection: Moderate-to-steady
- Notable Angles: Course form, trip suitability, recent performance
With no clear front-runner, it is likely to be a tactical affair, with the ability to quicken off a steady gallop playing a major role.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Moon Over The Sea
A consistent performer at this level, Moon Over The Sea arrives on the back of a solid second at Wolverhampton over this trip. His six career wins include five on the all-weather, and he has been holding his form well for his current trainer. While he is yet to win at Southwell, he has the best recent form in the field and should be involved at the finish.
Back From Dubai
A five-time course winner, Back From Dubai was impressive when scoring over 1m1f at Wolverhampton last time. The concern is stamina—most of his winning form is at shorter distances, and this will test his limits. If he can control the race from the front, he could be dangerous, but there are serious doubts about him staying the trip.
Come On John
Another who knows Southwell well, having won here previously. He was fourth over 1m3f last time, which was a respectable effort, but he will need to improve to take this. The application of blinkers for the first time could spark a revival.
Mhajim
A former 1m4f winner but that victory came three years ago. Since then, he has struggled to get involved in finishes, with a tendency to start slowly and get outpaced mid-race. His best chance lies in a strongly run contest, but that scenario looks unlikely here.
Fiftyshadesaresdev
Still a maiden after 26 starts, but he has placed in eight of those, so he is not without ability. His course form is respectable, and he has undergone wind surgery, which could bring improvement. More of a place contender than a likely winner.
Lednikov
A course-and-distance winner but out of form. He was well beaten last time at Newcastle, and his overall profile is inconsistent. He would need to bounce back in a major way to be competitive here.
Abstract
One win from 33 career starts tells its own story. He finished eighth last time and runs from out of the handicap. Unlikely to trouble the main players.
Shy Nala
Still a four-year-old, but she has yet to show any real promise at this level. Her best form has come over shorter trips, and she is hard to recommend on what she has achieved so far.
Predicted Race Shape & Key Contenders
With no confirmed front-runner, the race could develop into a tactical sprint in the closing stages. Moon Over The Sea looks the most solid option, given his recent consistency and ability to handle the trip and surface. Back From Dubai has the talent to win but faces a stamina question. Come On John is another who could improve with blinkers applied.
Final Thoughts
- Main Contender: Moon Over The Sea – Strong recent form, stays the trip, should be involved
- Potential Danger: Back From Dubai – Big question mark over stamina but talented
- Each-Way Angle: Fiftyshadesaresdev – Not a winner but can place
For more insight into how we assess race conditions and performance metrics, read our guide on What Are Predictive Ratings?.
Southwell 2:05 – In-Depth Horse Race Analysis & Free Horse Racing Tips
Race Overview
A competitive Class 5, 6f handicap on Southwell’s left-handed Tapeta track, featuring nine runners. The average OR is 69, and the median OR is 70, making this a well-matched field. The inside stalls tend to be favored, which could influence the race dynamics. A strong start and tactical positioning will be crucial.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1️⃣ Ben Y Bryn (OR 72, Jason Watson, Charlie Hills)
- 6f Record: 1 win from 4 runs (25%)
- AW Record: 1 win from 4 runs (25%)
- Class 5 Record: 1 win from 3 runs (33.3%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 0 wins from 3 runs
- Pace Rating: 6
- Draw: Stall 7
A lightly raced 4yo who won over 6f on polytrack, but yet to prove himself on Tapeta. His pace rating of 6 suggests he may race prominently, but his outside draw (7) could be a slight disadvantage. Needs to show he handles Southwell’s surface.
2️⃣ Northcliff (OR 71, Billy Loughnane, Michael Keady)
- 6f Record: 2 wins from 20 runs (10%)
- AW Record: 2 wins from 9 runs (22.2%)
- Class 5 Record: 0 wins from 10 runs (4 places)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 1 win from 4 runs (25%)
- Pace Rating: 6
- Draw: Stall 4
A consistent performer who has won at this trip but has never won in Class 5. Handles Tapeta well and is well drawn in stall 4, but his lack of winning form at this level is a concern.
3️⃣ Rambuso Creek (OR 71, Benoit D L Sayette, M Herrington)
- 6f Record: 0 wins from 12 runs (5 places)
- AW Record: 0 wins from 3 runs (2 places)
- Class 5 Record: 1 win from 10 runs (10%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 0 wins from 3 runs
- Pace Rating: 4
- Draw: Stall 9
A solid placer but rarely wins. He has twice placed at Southwell over this trip but is drawn widest in stall 9, which may force him to race wide or drop in behind. Needs a strong pace to be seen at his best.
4️⃣ Royal Pleasure (OR 70, Joanna Mason, M & D Easterby)
- 6f Record: 1 win from 7 runs (14.3%)
- AW Record: 3 wins from 15 runs (20%)
- Class 5 Record: 1 win from 3 runs (33.3%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 2 wins from 9 runs (22.2%)
- Pace Rating: 1
- Draw: Stall 6
A strong all-weather performer but hasn’t won for some time. His low pace rating (1) suggests he’s a hold-up runner, which can be tricky if the race develops into a sprint finish. Needs luck in running.
5️⃣ Mumayaz (OR 70, Rossa Ryan, A W Carroll)
- 6f Record: 2 wins from 19 runs (10.5%)
- AW Record: 4 wins from 29 runs (13.8%)
- Class 5 Record: 2 wins from 24 runs (8.3%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 3 wins from 13 runs (23.1%)
- Pace Rating: 2
- Draw: Stall 3
A solid all-weather runner who has placed over C&D before. His draw in stall 3 is a big advantage, and with Rossa Ryan booked, he could be one to watch. Pace rating of 2 suggests he might need a strong gallop to be effective.
6️⃣ Master Dandy (OR 69, Rhys Elliott (7), Charlie Clover)
- 6f Record: 2 wins from 8 runs (25%)
- AW Record: 2 wins from 9 runs (22.2%)
- Class 5 Record: 1 win from 9 runs (11.1%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 1 win from 6 runs (16.7%)
- Pace Rating: 7
- Draw: Stall 2
One of the most interesting runners, as he has placed on all three Southwell runs and is well-drawn in stall 2. Pace rating of 7 suggests he could try to lead, which is a good strategy over this course and trip.
7️⃣ Dicko The Legend (OR 67, Billy Garritty, L Bailey)
- 6f Record: 3 wins from 14 runs (21.4%)
- AW Record: 2 wins from 13 runs (15.4%)
- Class 5 Record: 0 wins from 13 runs (0%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 0 wins from 6 runs
- Pace Rating: 4
- Draw: Stall 8
Has a decent strike rate at 6f, but hasn’t won at this class or on Tapeta. Stall 8 is a concern, and he may need luck to land a blow.
8️⃣ Al Ameen (OR 66, K Shoemark, J R Fanshawe)
- 6f Record: 1 win from 17 runs (5.9%)
- AW Record: 2 wins from 19 runs (10.5%)
- Class 5 Record: 2 wins from 16 runs (12.5%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 1 win from 8 runs (12.5%)
- Pace Rating: 3
- Draw: Stall 5
A course winner, but strike rate at 6f is low. Not the strongest profile, but blinkers back on could help.
9️⃣ Walking On Clouds (OR 62, George Buckell (3), J Butler)
- 6f Record: 7 wins from 28 runs (25%)
- AW Record: 6 wins from 19 runs (31.6%)
- Class 5 Record: 3 wins from 5 runs (60%)
- Surface Record (Tapeta): 6 wins from 19 runs (31.6%)
- Pace Rating: 3
- Draw: Stall 1
The standout performer in terms of suitability. 3 wins in Class 5, a 60% strike rate at this level, and well drawn in stall 1. Likely to be well positioned and rates the one to beat.
Key Takeaways & Predicted Race Shape
- Pace Angle: Master Dandy (7) likely to push forward, with Ben Y Bryn (6) and Northcliff (6) close up.
- Strong Contenders: Walking On Clouds, Master Dandy, Mumayaz (all well drawn and strong at this level).
- Potential Dangers: Rambuso Creek (if there’s a strong pace), Ben Y Bryn (if handling Tapeta).
Final Verdict
Best Win Contender: Walking On Clouds – Ideal conditions, strong Class 5 record, best stall draw.
Potential Value Pick: Master Dandy – Stall 2, likely front-runner, Southwell placer.
Each-Way Chance: Mumayaz – Good draw, solid on Tapeta, strong jockey booking.
Southwell 2:40 – In-Depth Horse Race Analysis & Free Horse Racing Tips
The 2:40 at Southwell is a competitive Class 5 handicap over 6f, featuring a mix of proven all-weather specialists and horses seeking to find their best form. With a pace setup that leans towards midfield runners having the edge, it’s an intriguing contest where handicapping plays a crucial role in identifying the strongest contenders.
Race Conditions & Key Factors
Track: Southwell (Tapeta, straight 6f)
Pace Setup: Moderate to fair pace; closers could have an advantage
Notable Factors: Some horses are dropping in class, while others look potentially well-handicapped
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Hierarchy (OR 72, PR 75) – Well-handicapped contender
A consistent performer at this level, Hierarchy has a good record at 6f and was a solid second at Kempton last time out. His PR of 75 suggests he’s 3lbs well-in, making him a strong contender off this mark. He’ll likely sit midfield before finishing strongly.
Caffu Zafeen (OR 71, PR 74) – Each-way player
Still a maiden, but three placings from seven runs suggest ability. He was a beaten favourite last time out, which hints that connections expected more. Has a PR 3lbs higher than his OR, so could be a danger if improving.
Reinforce (OR 71, PR 65) – Opposable
A 5f winner but 0-11 over 6f, which suggests he may struggle to last home at this trip. His PR of 65 is 6lbs below his mark, making him one of the worst-treated in the field.
City Cyclone (OR 70, PR 65) – Well-backed but high in weights
He’s been in great form at Wolverhampton, but this 6f trip at Southwell may not be ideal. 5lbs too high on ratings, which makes him vulnerable despite recent consistency.
Alreet Cha (OR 69, PR 64) – Out of form and too high in the weights
1 win from 18 runs and a PR of 64 vs OR of 69 suggests he’s poorly handicapped. Likely to be outpaced.
One More Dream (OR 68, PR 67) – Previous C&D winner, chance if bouncing back
A 9-time winner, including twice at Southwell, but recent form has dipped. PR suggests he’s fairly treated, and a return to this track might reignite his form.
Cliffcake (OR 67, PR 70) – Major player
A 4-time Southwell winner, he ranks as one of the best-handicapped runners in the race. With a PR 3lbs ahead of OR, plus cheekpieces applied for the first time, he is a leading contender.
Ash Wednesday (OR 65, PR 63) – Potentially vulnerable at 6f
A three-time 7f winner, but 0-5 over this trip. While he’s in top form, PR suggests he’s slightly high in the weights. Might find 6f too sharp.
Ramon Di Loria (OR 56, PR 60) – Well-handicapped but inconsistent
Despite his PR being 4lbs higher than OR, he has been struggling for form. Might sneak into a place but looks risky.
Predicted Race Shape & Key Takeaways
Pace Analysis: Likely to be evenly run, which should suit strong finishers.
Best Handicapped Horses: Hierarchy (PR 75), Cliffcake (PR 70), and Caffu Zafeen (PR 74) all rate above their official marks.
Potential Weak Favourites: City Cyclone and Ash Wednesday are both running off slightly high marks and might not find conditions ideal.
Final Thoughts
This is a wide-open contest, but Cliffcake and Hierarchy stand out as the most well-treated runners based on PR vs OR. Caffu Zafeen is another to consider, while Ash Wednesday may find 6f too sharp. One More Dream has a solid C&D record and could be an outsider to note.
