5.00 Wolverhampton (9 runners) BetMGM: Its Showtime Handicap (Div 1) 7f (1576 yards) Class 6, Standard, 3yo, Win: £3140 Avg OR : 61, Median OR : 61 Left Handed, Stall Positioning : Outside
5:00 Wolverhampton Handicap (7f, Class 6, 3yo, 9 Runners)
Wolverhampton’s 5:00 race presents an intriguing puzzle, with several lightly raced three-year-olds stepping into handicaps for the first time. Given the nature of these runners, many will have been campaigned over inadequate trips in nurseries to get a workable handicap mark, making this a contest with potential for improvement from unexpected quarters. With an average OR of 61 and a median OR of 61, we are dealing with horses operating at a competitive, yet open, level.
Pace and Track Bias Analysis
The race is set to be run at an even pace, with multiple potential front-runners and prominent racers. Wolverhampton’s left-handed Tapeta track, with a slight advantage to wide-drawn horses, means positioning and race shape could play a significant role. A moderate gallop could leave late closers at a disadvantage, while a stronger early pace may set things up for sustained finishers.
Key Runners & Predictive Ratings (PR vs OR)
1. Arlecchinos Rex (OR 61, PR 61) ✅ Fairly Handicapped
A course and distance winner who ran a strong second at Kempton last time out, Arlecchinos Rex looks a solid, reliable contender at this level. With a predictive rating (PR) equal to his official mark (OR 61), he is weighted fairly but doesn’t necessarily have an obvious edge over the handicapper. His past Wolverhampton performances suggest he thrives here, and he remains a key player, especially with a first-time hood possibly sharpening him up.
2. Memardee (OR 63, PR 66) ✅ Potentially Well-Handicapped (+3)
Memardee is one of the few in the field that could be ahead of the handicapper. While she has yet to place in six runs, her latest efforts suggest she may appreciate this step up to 7f. Given her predictive rating of 66 (3lbs ahead of her mark), she represents an interesting potential improver. However, she needs to prove she can put everything together in a race scenario.
3. Blue Anthem (OR 65, PR 65) ✅ Untapped Potential
A thrice-raced maiden stepping up significantly in trip, Blue Anthem could be the most interesting runner from a trainer intent perspective. His form over 5f and 6f has been underwhelming, but his stride frequency and sectional data suggest he was running over the wrong trip. Today’s race represents his first attempt at 7f in a handicap, and if connections have targeted this distance for a breakthrough, he could show considerable improvement.
4. Kaleidoscope Eyes (OR 59, PR 53) ❌ Possibly Overrated (-6)
Last time out, Kaleidoscope Eyes produced a career-best performance to win over this course and distance. However, she is now 6lbs higher in the weights, and her predictive rating of 53 suggests she may struggle to defy that rise. While she is well-suited to the trip, this rating hike may prove too much to overcome against more progressive rivals.
5. Inconspicuous (OR 61, PR 63) ✅ Another Possible Improver (+2)
Although largely unexposed at this trip, Inconspicuous performed well over 5f when blinkered for the first time last time out. With a pace rating suggesting he could go forward, and a PR (63) slightly ahead of his OR (61), there is an argument that he could step forward at 7f. The main concern remains stamina—if he doesn’t see out the trip strongly, he may weaken late.
6. Risk (OR 60, PR 47) & Rogue Endeavour (OR 59, PR 46) ❌ Poorly Handicapped (-13, -13)
Risk and Rogue Endeavour appear to be significantly overrated by the handicapper, with their PRs well below their official ratings. Neither has shown enough ability to suggest they can be competitive off their current marks. They would need major improvement or a drastically different race scenario to feature.
Predicted Race Shape & Conclusion
The pace setup looks even, which should favour horses able to travel efficiently and sustain effort over 7f.
🏇 Likely front-runners: Kaleidoscope Eyes, Inconspicuous (if aggressive from the gate).
🏇 Midfield stalkers: Arlecchinos Rex, Blue Anthem.
🏇 Late closers: Memardee, Risk (if he stays 7f strongly).
Given the PR vs OR discrepancies, the best value angles appear to be: ✅ Memardee (Potentially ahead of the handicapper, but unproven). ✅ Blue Anthem (Big trip change could unlock ability). ✅ Arlecchinos Rex (Reliable, no margin for error but competitive).
Kaleidoscope Eyes will likely be popular after her last win, but her rating hike looks tough to defy. If she’s vulnerable, it could open the door for a less-exposed type to capitalise.
Verdict
📌 Strongest Handicapping Case: Memardee (OR 63, PR 66, +3) – unproven but possibly well-treated. 📌 Safer Contender: Arlecchinos Rex (OR 61, PR 61, 0) – proven form, fair mark. 📌 Dark Horse: Blue Anthem (OR 65, PR 65, 0) – completely unexposed at 7f. 📌 Vulnerable Favourite: Kaleidoscope Eyes (OR 59, PR 53, -6) – faces a 6lb rise that may be too much.
With an open-looking field, this race should provide an insightful look into which of these three-year-olds are genuinely well-treated at this stage of the season
Wolverhampton 6:30 – 5f Handicap (Class 6, Tapeta) Analysis
Race Conditions
A competitive 5f sprint at Wolverhampton featuring a mix of seasoned all-weather specialists, well-handicapped contenders, and in-form sprinters. The pace forecast suggests an evenly run race, which should allow those positioned correctly to have every chance. The Tapeta surface favours sharp, speed-driven performers, and Wolverhampton’s 5f tends to reward those who can either dominate the pace or finish strongly off a contested lead.
With recent form, OR vs PR calculations, and course preferences taken into account, let’s break down the key contenders.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Rosenpur (GER) – OR 65 | PR 60 (-5)
Jennie Candlish’s 5-year-old has solid track credentials (C&D winner) but is at the top of his mark after a good sequence of runs. Fourth at Southwell last time, he’s been largely consistent but is now running off a career-high mark without the benefit of a claim. The drop back to 5f should suit given his previous success over the trip, but he’ll need things to go perfectly from Stall 2.
✅ C&D winner, consistent recent form
❌ Handicapped close to his ceiling, vulnerable to improvers
Antiphon (IRE) – OR 65 | PR 65 (0)
The most well-handicapped horse based on raw OR vs PR, thanks to Alice Bond’s 7lb claim. However, his form has nosedived, finishing last at Chelmsford and struggling for any spark. He’s winless in 13 starts and yet to fire on Tapeta (0 wins from 8 runs). The mark is enticing, but he’s got plenty to prove before warranting serious consideration.
✅ Well-handicapped, useful at his best
❌ Out of form, unproven on Tapeta, hard to trust
Level Up (IRE) – OR 63 | PR 69 (-6)
One of the most intriguing runners, with a strong C&D record (2 wins, 3 places from 11 runs) and a solid recent second at Southwell. He’s 6lb ahead of his OR based on PR, suggesting he still has room to strike at this level. Rossa Ryan is an excellent booking, and while he’s exposed, he’s in the right grade and stall 6 offers tactical flexibility.
✅ C&D record, well-handicapped, top jockey
❌ Has had plenty of chances at this level
Bibendum – OR 62 | PR 63 (-1)
Lightly raced compared to some of these but remains winless after 13 attempts. He’s placed in four races and has been consistent in similar conditions, but his last run at Wolverhampton (beaten 9 lengths) doesn’t inspire confidence. The 3lb claim from Jack Doughty helps, but a maiden in a field full of course specialists is hard to back.
✅ Placed form, unexposed at this level
❌ Winless, struggled last time out
Buraback (IRE) – OR 61 | PR 60 (+1)
A Wolverhampton specialist (4 course wins, 2 C&D wins) and arrives on a C&D hat-trick bid after two convincing wins last month. He’s up another 5lb but is thriving on the surface, and Lewis Edmunds retains the ride. The main question is whether he’s now in the grip of the handicapper, but a strong pace could set things up for him again.
✅ Thriving at Wolverhampton, well-drawn, good record in Class 6
❌ Up 5lb, may not get a perfect race shape
Wedgewood – OR 61 | PR 51 (+10)
A three-time C&D winner who hasn’t been seen since September. Fitness is the big unknown, and her PR (10 points above OR) suggests she’s running from an unfavourable mark. Luke Morris is a positive, and if she’s tuned up, she can be competitive. However, the long layoff makes her a tricky proposition.
✅ C&D specialist, strong jockey booking
❌ Lengthy absence, looks a bit high in the weights
Gustav Graves – OR 60 | PR 63 (-3)
Derek Shaw’s 7-year-old has been in great form, winning over C&D before a close second at Newcastle. PR suggests he’s still fairly treated, and he’s got a strong record at Wolverhampton (6 wins). With a 2lb lower mark than his last win, he’s a serious player. However, the pace setup might not favour his usual hold-up style.
✅ C&D winner, good recent form, still well-handicapped
❌ Relies on a strong pace, vulnerable to front-runners
Nelson Gay (IRE) – OR 60 | PR 63 (-3)
Has strong C&D form (2 wins, 5 places from 9 runs) and first-time tongue tie might unlock improvement. That said, he hasn’t won in 21 starts and finished 5th at Southwell last time. He’s another hold-up performer who’ll be relying on a strong pace. Billy Loughnane’s booking is a positive.
✅ Good C&D record, well-handicapped on best form
❌ Long losing run, needs a perfect trip
Pop Dancer (IRE) – OR 59 | PR 59 (0)
A C&D winner who’s fallen to a mark in the 50s for the first time. While recent form isn’t inspiring, he’s been running in slightly stronger races and is drawn widest in Stall 9. If he breaks well, he could be competitive, but he’ll need to rediscover his best form.
✅ C&D winner, nicely weighted
❌ Poor recent runs, needs a resurgence
Key Insights & Final Thoughts
- Most Well-Handicapped: Level Up (-6), Antiphon (-7) (but out of form)
- Best C&D Records: Buraback (4W), Wedgewood (3W), Gustav Graves (6W)
- Best Recent Form: Buraback, Gustav Graves, Level Up
- Pace Projection: Even pace expected. Could favour front-runners or those tracking closely.
Verdict
- Best Profile: Level Up – He’s well-handicapped, in form, and has a good C&D record.
- Dangerous Rival: Gustav Graves – In good form and still on a workable mark.
- Potential Value: Nelson Gay – If the first-time tongue tie has an effect, he could bounce back at a fair price.
This looks a competitive Wolverhampton sprint where small margins will make the difference. A slight preference goes to Level Up, with Gustav Graves and Nelson Gay offering strong alternatives in what should be a tightly run contest.
