1:00 Lingfield – Class 6 Handicap (1m, Polytrack) | Horse Race Analysis
Race Overview
A competitive Class 6 handicap over 1 mile on Lingfield’s Polytrack, featuring a mix of seasoned all-weather specialists and potential improvers. With an even pace forecast, positioning and tactical speed will be key. The draw bias at Lingfield slightly favours inside stalls in mid-sized fields, though horses with a strong finishing kick can still make an impact.
The pace setup suggests that Gone Rogue and Takeover Target could go forward early, setting the fractions, while Forever Proud, Union Island, and Zaltalla sit just off the pace ready to strike. Roscioli and Rabinal are expected to stay on from further back if the leaders fade.
Key Runners & Analysis
✅ Forever Proud (PR=OR 62)
- Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Hector Crouch
- Strong recent form (2 wins from last 3 starts).
- Cheekpieces have transformed her (4 wins from 8 runs with them).
- Ideal trip & surface (21% strike rate on Polytrack).
- Pace Rating: 5 – Can track the leaders and quicken.
🔹 Verdict: Well-balanced runner who is thriving in current form and should be competitive again.
✅ Union Island (PR=OR 62)
- Trainer: Charlie Johnston | Jockey: S D Bowen
- Three-time winner (including twice on AW).
- Consistent recent form (placed last 3 starts).
- Tactical speed an asset – often well-placed.
- Pace Rating: 5 – Should get a good position.
🔹 Verdict: Still improving, should be involved late on.
🔥 Zaltalla (PR 62, OR 60)
- Trainer: M J Attwater | Jockey: Paddy Bradley
- Eye-catching 2nd last time over 7f – finishing strongly.
- First run at this trip – should suit based on last run.
- Best runs at Lingfield – 0 wins in 11 starts but placed twice.
- Pace Rating: 4 – Could be better suited by stronger pace.
🔹 Verdict: Potential dark horse – stepping up in trip and could be peaking.
⚠️ Roscioli (PR 60, OR 62)
- Trainer: B R Johnson | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
- Strong Lingfield record (3 places from 5 runs at C&D).
- May have needed last run after a break.
- Pace Rating: 8 – Likes to be held up but needs a fast pace to be seen to best effect.
🔹 Verdict: Solid performer but may need more help from the race setup.
🔥 Rabinal (PR 58, OR 56)
- Trainer: S Dow | Jockey: Jack Mitchell
- Three wins at Lingfield (including C&D).
- Likes to be held up and needs a strong pace to be effective.
- Pace Rating: 3 – Could struggle if they don’t go hard enough.
🔹 Verdict: If breaking better than last time, he could be involved.
⚠️ Kondratiev Wave (PR 54, OR 59)
- Trainer: A W Carroll | Jockey: Jack Doughty (3)
- Consistent last year (4 wins) but PR suggests he may be overrated at this level.
- C&D winner but not a strong finisher.
- Pace Rating: 7 – Could get involved if leaders come back.
🔹 Verdict: Likely to run well but could find 1-2 too strong.
❌ Gone Rogue (PR 53, OR 57)
- Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: T P Queally
- Winless on the AW and 12 runs since last win.
- Pace Rating: 10 – Likely front-runner but may fold late.
🔹 Verdict: Better horses should pick him off late.
❌ Takeover Target (PR 55, OR 53)
- Trainer: P Phelan | Jockey: John Egan
- 0 wins in 11 starts and struggling to find improvement.
- Pace Rating: 9 – Another likely pacesetter who may fade.
🔹 Verdict: Unconvincing profile.
❌ Ocean Odyssey (PR 48, OR 52)
- Trainer: M McGrath | Jockey: Shane Kelly
- 0 wins in 9 starts, never placed in Class 6.
- First start for new yard but needs massive improvement.
- Pace Rating: 3 – Will be held up but no strong closing form.
🔹 Verdict: Unlikely to feature.
🏇 Race Tactics & Pace Setup
- Gone Rogue & Takeover Target likely to lead, but they tend to fade late.
- Forever Proud, Union Island & Zaltalla will track the leaders and look to pounce late.
- Roscioli & Rabinal will be held up, relying on a collapse in pace.
The even pace forecast suggests horses with tactical speed will hold an advantage.
Final Selections
🏆 Strongest Contenders:
✅ Forever Proud (Proven form, thriving, cheekpieces key)
✅ Union Island (Consistent, tactical speed, Johnston factor)
🔥 Zaltalla (Overperforming PR vs OR, step up in trip could unlock improvement)
🔥 Rabinal (Course specialist, but needs strong pace)
⚠️ Dangerous at their best:
- Roscioli (C&D record strong, but needs everything to go right)
- Kondratiev Wave (Has ability but PR suggests he’s now too high in the weights)
❌ Horses to Oppose:
- Gone Rogue, Takeover Target, Ocean Odyssey (Struggling to see them lasting against stronger finishers).
Conclusion
This looks a good opportunity for Forever Proud or Union Island to strike, with Zaltalla being a serious danger if handling the step up in trip. Roscioli and Rabinal need the race to unfold perfectly, but they have each-way claims.
If you were to focus on one key runner, Forever Proud looks the safest selection, given her thriving form, pace setup, and effectiveness in cheekpieces.
Lingfield 3.45 Horse Race Analysis
In horse racing, conditions dictate outcomes. The interplay between track surface, distance, race pace, and a horse’s profile can reveal a predictive edge that goes beyond simple form figures. With a strong pace forecast in today’s Lingfield 3.45, early speed will be at a premium, but the key question is whether those on the front end can sustain it or if closers will pick up the pieces late.
Understanding Today’s Race Conditions
- Track: Lingfield (Polytrack)
- Distance: 5f
- Class: 4
- Pace Forecast: Strong
With multiple early-speed types in the lineup, the race could set up for a stalker or a closer who can take advantage of tiring front-runners.
Profiling the Contenders
One Night Stand (PR 80 / OR 81)
Profile: A seasoned 8yo with a strong C&D record (3 wins from 8 runs) but arrives out of form, having struggled in recent starts.
Pace & Fit: A prominent racer but may find it difficult to dominate in a field with multiple pace-forcers.
Conditions Suitability: C&D record is respectable, but whether he still retains his edge at this level remains a concern.
Verdict: Would need a tactical advantage to feature.
Mc Loven (PR 77 / OR 80)
Profile: A progressive 4yo with a solid C&D record (1 win, 2 places from 3 runs) and form that suggests he’s best at 5f rather than 6f.
Pace & Fit: Can sit just off the speed and finish well, which could be ideal given the race shape.
Conditions Suitability: Proven on Polytrack and in this grade.
Verdict: Well suited to conditions and one of the strongest contenders if the pace collapses.
Night On Earth (PR 79 / OR 79)
Profile: A battle-hardened 7yo with 12 career wins, including multiple on the all-weather. However, his last run was poor.
Pace & Fit: One of several early-speed types, which could work against him if he gets involved in a battle up front.
Conditions Suitability: Has won over C&D but will need to be at his absolute best to fend off younger rivals.
Verdict: A strong pace could expose his vulnerabilities late on.
Blazes Boylan (PR 79 / OR 77)
Profile: Unexposed compared to most. Won at Chelmsford last time, showing tactical speed.
Pace & Fit: A pace-presser who could be well positioned to pounce if others fade.
Conditions Suitability: No C&D experience, but Polytrack form is strong (2 wins from 4).
Verdict: A live contender with upside.
Bang On The Bell (PR 67 / OR 77)
Profile: Has plenty of all-weather experience but is inconsistent. Has blinkers applied again.
Pace & Fit: Can sit handy but doesn’t always finish races strongly.
Conditions Suitability: C&D record is fair, but he’s yet to prove himself in a truly competitive Class 4 race.
Verdict: More place than win potential.
Dashing Harry (PR 75 / OR 74)
Profile: Has been struggling for form but has past winning experience at 5f.
Pace & Fit: Not quick enough early, so will be forced to run on from behind.
Conditions Suitability: Polytrack form is decent, but others look better suited to the test.
Verdict: Likely to be outpaced early and playing catch-up.
G’day Mate (PR 72 / OR 74)
Profile: Has shown very little at this level, despite having a 5f win in his record.
Pace & Fit: Lacks natural speed and may struggle to land a blow.
Conditions Suitability: Unproven at Lingfield and looks exposed.
Verdict: Needs a major improvement to be competitive.
Rainyniteingeorgia (PR 71 / OR 72) – Wild Card Selection
Profile: The most interesting runner based on two C&D wins. However, she’s struggled since returning from a break.
Pace & Fit: Unlike most, she has the ability to sit off the pace and finish late, which could be key in a race that collapses up front.
Conditions Suitability: Two wins from three at C&D makes her a dangerous outsider despite recent poor runs.
Verdict: If the pace collapses, she could be the one to exploit it.
Final Thoughts
The pace setup is the biggest factor in today’s race. With several strong front-runners, it’s likely that a stalker or a late closer could take advantage.
- Mc Loven stands out as a well-positioned stalker who could pick up the pieces.
- Blazes Boylan is still unexposed and improving, making him a fascinating contender.
- Night On Earth and One Night Stand will likely force the early pace, but they may be susceptible to fading late.
- Rainyniteingeorgia emerges as a wild card, capable of finishing fast if the leaders go too hard.
The conditions at Lingfield today favour those who can travel efficiently and sustain late speed. Expect a fascinating tactical battle, where timing the challenge right will be the key to victory
