Free Horse Racing Tips & Analysis – Friday at Newcastle
Welcome to today’s in-depth horse racing analysis for the 7:20 Newcastle, a Class 4 handicap over one mile on the Tapeta. We’ve profiled every runner to identify which horses are best suited to today’s race conditions, factoring in course form, surface suitability, distance records, trainer patterns, pace, and a crucial comparison between Official Ratings (OR) and our Predictive Rating (PR) model, adjusted for jockey claims.
Let’s break down each contender.
Race Conditions
Class: 4 Handicap
Distance: 1 mile
Surface: Tapeta
Field Size: 8 (1 Non-Runner – Eden Storm)
Pace: Looks evenly run, with Live Aid and Westernesse expected to be prominent. Chuzzlewit and Clear Angel will likely be held up.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Hale End (Trainer: M Dods | Jockey: Oliver Stammers (3))
A course-and-distance winner who returns to the all-weather after a modest turf reappearance at Redcar. That run came off a break and in higher grade, so a drop back to Class 4 and return to Tapeta look more favourable. Has four career wins at the distance and handles the surface reasonably well. The adjusted OR is 75 after Stammers’ 3lb claim, which gives him a 2lb edge over his PR of 77. Profile is solid, but he doesn’t always finish off his races strongly and has failed to place in three of four runs here.
Verdict: Fairly handicapped with a positive track record. Place claims if breaking cleanly and getting cover.
Westernesse (Trainer: D O’Meara | Jockey: Kevin Stott)
Winner over course and distance two starts back in Class 5, but was well held off today’s mark at Chelmsford since. His profile shows both of his career wins came in lower grades, and while he has placed off 78 before, he may be a shade high in the weights now. His PR is 75, and with no claim applied, he is technically 3lb above his optimal mark.
Verdict: Recent win flatters him in context; hard to dismiss entirely, but others look better treated at the weights.
Savvy Kingdom (Trainer: S P C Woods | Jockey: Ben Sanderson)
Lightly raced and still unexposed, with a win on Polytrack at 7f and an encouraging third over a mile last time at Lingfield off a long absence. That run came off a 261-day break, so he’s entitled to come forward for it. PR suggests 74 is his ideal mark, so he’s 4lb wrong today off 78. First run on Tapeta is a question mark, but his pedigree suggests he should cope.
Verdict: Unexposed and shaped with promise last time. Not well-in at the weights, but open to progress. Dangerous to overlook.
Mr Mistoffelees (Trainer: S England | Jockey: Oisin Orr)
One win from 17 starts, but remarkably consistent, especially on the all-weather. Finished within two lengths of the winner in five consecutive runs, including a third in a big field at Chelmsford last time. His OR of 75 is just 1lb above his PR, so he’s fairly treated. He lacks winning momentum, however, and his single win came over two years ago.
Verdict: In the form of his life and holding it well. Deserves respect, but needs everything to fall right to get his head in front.
Live Aid (Trainer: D Carroll | Jockey: Zak Wheatley (3))
Scored easily at Southwell last time in maiden company, relishing the one-mile trip. That was his first try over a mile on the AW, and he looked to enjoy conditions. Makes handicap debut off a mark of 75, but Zak Wheatley’s 3lb claim brings that down to 72. With a PR of 77, he’s effectively 5lb well-in today. While he’s up in grade, the performance style suggested there’s more to come.
Verdict: Well-in, unexposed, and ideally suited by trip and surface. Big chance if progressing again.
Clear Angel (Trainer: S Corbett | Jockey: Callum Rodriguez)
Formerly consistent, this 7yo shaped as though the run was needed last time at Southwell after a break. His record at Newcastle is patchy (1 win from 11) but has placed here and over CD. PR of 76 vs OR of 72 gives him a 4lb advantage, and if stripping fitter today, he could be a danger. However, he has not been the most reliable recently.
Verdict: Has the figures and conditions to run well, but relies on returning to peak fitness and form.
Chuzzlewit (Trainer: K A Ryan | Jockey: S A Gray)
Another previous CD winner who has struggled for consistency but shaped better than the result last time at Pontefract. Looks to enjoy Newcastle and was placed over CD in a Class 4 back in February. The blinkers remain on, and he’s now 4lb well-in on PR figures (PR 74 vs OR 70). If granted a more favourable position in running, he can outrun his odds.
Verdict: Looks well handicapped and has the right track profile. Has solid place and win potential.
Barleybrown (Trainer: Mrs R A Carr | Jockey: J P Sullivan)
Five-time winner at 1m and a real Newcastle specialist with four wins and three places from 11 CD runs. Returns from a 144-day break and may need the run, especially now up in grade. Has been consistent and is genuine, but his PR of 57 is significantly below his OR of 66, leaving him 9lb wrong at the weights in this company.
Verdict: Profile is admirable and loves the course, but may struggle against better-treated rivals in this grade.
Pace Breakdown
Live Aid and Westernesse are expected to push forward, ensuring a fair gallop.
Chuzzlewit, Clear Angel, and Mr Mistoffelees are likely to be played late.
Savvy Kingdom may track leaders if settling better.
Hale End may sit mid-pack with cheekpieces on to sharpen him.
This setup could suit strong-travelling closers who are well drawn and can tuck in behind the pace.
PR vs OR Summary (Including Claims)
| Horse | OR | Claim | Adj OR | PR | PR – Adj OR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live Aid | 75 | -3 | 72 | 77 | +5 |
| Clear Angel | 72 | 0 | 72 | 76 | +4 |
| Chuzzlewit | 70 | 0 | 70 | 74 | +4 |
| Hale End | 78 | -3 | 75 | 77 | +2 |
| Mr Mistoffelees | 75 | 0 | 75 | 74 | -1 |
| Westernesse | 78 | 0 | 78 | 75 | -3 |
| Savvy Kingdom | 78 | 0 | 78 | 74 | -4 |
| Barleybrown | 66 | 0 | 66 | 57 | -9 |
Where to Find Value Bets in Horse Racing
The horses that align with both PR logic and race suitability today include Live Aid, Clear Angel, and Chuzzlewit. These runners appear well-in at the weights and have strong compatibility with today’s conditions.
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Shortlist – Top 3 Contenders
Live Aid – Unexposed, well-in, ideally suited by the trip. Big player off a favourable mark.
Chuzzlewit – Better than bare form suggests; strong CD profile and well-treated today.
Clear Angel – May strip fitter for comeback; conditions ideal and nicely weighted if bouncing back.
