Horse Racing Sectionals: The Basic Guide to Understanding True Race Pace
You’ve probably looked at a race result, seen the overall time, and thought you had the full picture. You’ve also likely heard punters or pundits exclaiming, “What a fantastic ride!” or “That horse is a monster!” after a seemingly electric late surge. It’s a familiar sight: a horse storms through from off the pace, devours lengths in the final furlongs, and instantly goes into people’s trackers as a “sure thing” for next time.
But what if I told you that such an eye-catching finish might be one of the most deceptive numbers in horse racing?
Quite often, on closer inspection, the performance wasn’t as special as it seemed. Instead, that horse may have been flattered by a very strong early pace. While the finish looked spectacular, it may simply have capitalised on conserved energy, picking off rivals who’d gone too hard too soon. If that same horse finds itself in a truly run race with a steady, even pace, it’s unlikely to reproduce such a visually dramatic—but ultimately misleading—performance.
This is precisely where sectional timings come in, offering a deeper, more nuanced understanding of a horse’s real ability and the true narrative of a race. Analysis of sectional times is a powerful tool—but only if used wisely.
What Are Sectional Timings?
At its simplest,
sectional timing—sometimes called fractional timing —involves breaking a race into smaller, measured segments. Instead of one time for the entire race, you see times for each furlong, every 200 metres, or other specific splits.
Sectional times record how long it takes a horse—or sometimes just the leader—to travel between fixed points on the track. Think of the overall race time as merely one large sectional that covers the whole distance.
Why go to this level of detail? Because a horse has a finite reservoir of energy. Sectionals reveal how that energy was distributed—whether the horse ran efficiently or expended too much too soon. This is rooted in the fundamentals of physiology and physics. A basic premise of sectional analysis is that there is an efficient way for a horse to run in a given circumstance, and a significant departure from that efficiency will result in a significant cost to that horse’s overall time. Efficiency maximises a horse’s average speed while minimising overall time.
Consider this:
A horse that runs a fast overall time by going flat out from the start might actually be less talented than a horse who recorded a slower overall time but produced a huge late surge after encountering trouble in running.
Sectional timings help us separate two crucial concepts:
Pace – How fast the race was run early on.
Ability – How good the horse truly is.
This separation is the core purpose of sectional analysis. Overall times alone are always shaped by how the race unfolded. By examining smaller segments, we can see a horse’s raw speed and how it was deployed—a much more reliable measure of merit than simply clocking the final time. This applies universally, whether on the turf, over obstacles, or the All-Weather.
Par Sectionals: The Universal Benchmark for Race Pace
So, if every race is different, how do we judge whether sectional timings are good or bad? That’s where Par Sectionals become indispensable.
A par sectional is the theoretical ideal set of sectional splits for a given course, distance, and going (e.g. firm, soft, or standard on the All-Weather). It represents the most efficient speed distribution for achieving the fastest possible overall time for that scenario.
It’s not about the fastest horse; it’s about the most efficient way to run the race.
While the exact
par splits for a 6f sprint on soft ground at Newmarket will differ from those for a 1m2f All-Weather contest at Kempton, the concept of optimal distribution is constant.
Pars are usually derived from historical data, focusing on the most efficient performances over specific tracks and trips. They provide a neutral baseline against which to measure any race’s actual sectionals.
Here’s how they help interpret race pace:
Fast Early Sectionals (relative to par): A significantly faster-than-par early pace signals a strongly run race. This often burns out front-runners and benefits horses with stamina and a strong finish (closers). Those spectacular late surges we often see typically occur in such races.
Slow Early Sectionals (relative to par): When early fractions are slower than par, the race has been run “falsely”. It often becomes a sprint finish, favouring horses with a sharp turn of foot who are already well positioned.
Consistent Sectionals (close to par): This indicates an efficiently run race where the winner likely proved the best horse on the day. There were no significant pace biases for rivals to exploit.
Par sectionals transform raw numbers into meaningful context, helping analysts and punters alike see beyond surface impressions.
The Golden Metric: Finishing Speed Percentage (FS%) in Sectional Analysis
If
par sectionals are your benchmark, then Finishing Speed Percentage (FS%) is your ultimate diagnostic tool. FS% shows how quickly a horse ran the final part of a race relative to its average speed over the entire contest.
Different data providers calculate it slightly differently, but the underlying principle is universal. In UK racing, the most widely adopted formula was developed and popularised by Simon Rowlands during his long career at Timeform.
Rowlands’ formula for FS% is:
$$\text{FS%} = \frac{100 \times T \times d}{D \times t}$$
where:
= total race time (in seconds)
= total race distance
= time for the final sectional distance (in seconds)
= distance of the final sectional (in furlongs)
This equation essentially measures how the horse’s speed in the closing section compares to its average speed for the entire race.
A simpler way to interpret it:
FS% > 100% → The horse accelerated at the finish, running faster than its average pace. This often suggests stamina or an excellent turn of foot, depending on context. It follows that it was running slower than its average race speed earlier in the race.
FS% < 100% → The horse decelerated in the final stages, indicating fatigue from going too fast early, lacking stamina, or simply not being good enough to maintain the gallop. Conversely, its speed compared to its average race speed must have been higher earlier.
This figure is critical because it reveals how the horse distributed its energy—an insight far beyond the limitations of simple finishing positions.
Translating FS% Into Context: Understanding True Race Pace
FS% alone doesn’t tell the whole story. Its meaning varies dramatically depending on how the race was run.
Consider these scenarios:
Strong Pace + High FS% This is genuinely impressive. The horse sustained or increased its speed despite a demanding early gallop—a sign of true class and stamina. This is the type of performance that marks a horse as one to follow.
Slow Pace + High FS% In this scenario, a high FS% often signals a horse with a sharp turn of foot, but it doesn’t necessarily prove stamina. Such finishes can look spectacular but may flatter the horse’s true ability.
Strong Pace + Low FS% This usually means the horse couldn’t sustain the fierce early fractions and faded late—classic signs of going too hard early or lacking stamina.
Slow Pace + Low FS% This is the most concerning pattern. The horse tired even off a slow gallop, suggesting either a lack of ability or simply an off day.
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When High FS% Isn’t Always Good News
Here’s a crucial nuance often overlooked: In some races, particularly those that are slowly run or of generally poor quality, you’ll often see many horses recording high FS% figures. It might look like the entire field finished strongly. But that’s usually a sign the early pace was so slow that everyone conserved energy for a late sprint.
Don’t confuse widespread high FS% figures with genuine good performances.
Instead, look for races where only one or two horses produce significantly higher FS% figures than the rest. That usually signals genuine talent—horses capable of producing a truly superior burst of speed, rather than merely taking advantage of race shape. This often presents as more genuine in terms of ability.
The Upgrade and Downgrade Concept in Sectional Analysis
FS% is critical for “upgrading” or “downgrading” a performance beyond the bare result.
Upgrade: A horse finishing unplaced but recording an exceptionally high
FS% (especially in a strongly run race or where it’s a clear outlier within its field) may have performed better than its finishing position suggests. It might have been held up, suffered trouble in running, or simply left itself too much to do. Such horses can be excellent betting opportunities next time. Professional analysts—such as Timeform—sometimes translate these upgrades or downgrades into performance pounds, making them powerful predictive tools for future races.
Downgrade: Conversely, a horse that wins but posts a low FS% in a slowly run race, particularly one where it’s not a clear outlier, might simply have enjoyed a tactical advantage. Its apparent superiority could evaporate in a more genuinely run contest. This is how false favourites often emerge next time out.
The Inescapable Influence of Race Pace
One of the biggest truths often ignored by casual punters is this:
A horse can only run as efficiently as the race pace dictates. Even a horse that wants to race evenly may be forced into inefficiency by the way the race unfolds.
Consider:
Too Slow Early Pace: A horse trying to conserve energy off the pace might suddenly find itself with an impossible task if the leader gains a soft, uncontested lead (e.g., 10-15 lengths). To bridge a significant gap, it must produce an unsustainably fast final sectional, running inefficiently purely to catch up. In these cases, the winner might simply be the horse who got the softest lead—not necessarily the best horse. This forces the horses behind to run inefficiently at the later stages of the race.
Too Fast Early Pace: While this can favour closers, even they are running against a backdrop of unsustainable fractions. They might be forced to produce a mid-race surge that’s not replicable in a better-balanced contest.
So while sectional analysis is a powerful tool, it’s not a crystal ball. It helps explain the circumstances of a performance, but it doesn’t always declare a horse’s absolute class. In a race that is inefficient (be it by a blazing or glacial early pace), it often forces all horses, to varying degrees, to run in an inefficient manner relative to their optimal energy distribution. This is a no-win situation.
Track Bias: The Silent Partner of Pace
Another critical factor is track bias. Some courses consistently favour certain run styles:
Kempton’s All-Weather inner track, for example, often suits prominent racers due to its largely flat nature and shorter run-in of just under two furlongs.
Stiffer finishes—like Ascot or Beverley (which rises over 60 feet in its last three furlongs) —often favour strong stayers.
Southwell, with its testing Fibresand surface, often leads to attritional finishes where winners are slowing down at the end, similar to dirt racing in the US.
These tendencies aren’t absolute, but they’re real. Often what appears as a pace bias is actually a track’s physical characteristics lending an advantage to certain running styles with minimal cost in efficiency. Understanding these biases is vital when translating sectional data into meaningful insights.
Always Watch the Replay! The Visual Key to Sectional Timings
Sectional times tell you what happened. But the replay shows you how and why.
Did the horse get boxed in? Was the jockey caught wide? Did another runner hamper its progress?
Visual clues are crucial for matching sectional numbers with real-life race circumstances. Hong Kong and Australia—both global leaders in sectional timing—place enormous emphasis on video analysis alongside their advanced data tools. Conventional television pictures and online replays can be used for manual sectional timing.
Your Unchanging Toolkit for Sectional Success – And Where to Learn More
As this guide has shown, sectional analysis, while immensely powerful, quickly leads into nuance. Eye-catching finishes can be deceptive. Inefficiently run races can distort apparent merit. And not every high FS% signals a superstar.
Sectional timings aren’t a magic bullet that reveals the winner every time. Instead, they’re a potent interpretive tool that, when used wisely, elevates your understanding of form beyond what’s visible on the surface. In isolation, a way to use sectionals to point straight to the likely winner has not been found, so it’s always advised to make sure other race conditions suit. However, even with a basic understanding, you will never view a race the same way again.
If you’re keen to dive deeper, here are some excellent resources:
Simon Rowlands remains one of the UK’s foremost experts on sectional timings. His blogs, articles, and his work with Timeform (where he is Head of Research & Development) have shaped modern sectional analysis in Britain. His booklet, “Sectional Timing: An Introduction by Timeform,” is a key resource.
James Willoughby is another top-class analyst whose writing and media appearances, particularly on RacingUK (now Racing TV), have been tireless and persuasive advocates of sectional timing.
At The Races (https://www.attheraces.com) offers free sectional charts, par times, and easy-to-understand colour coding for many UK races. They also provide a quick guide.
Race IQ (Racing TV) provides detailed sectionals with a par line and colour coding, and experts on “The Verdict” often speak about sectionals, offering real-time learning opportunities.
While sectional data alone won’t guarantee a winning bet every time, it’s a powerful way to avoid horses flattered by race pace—and to spot those hidden gems whose real merit exceeds what the bare form suggests.
Ultimately, understanding sectionals will transform how you see a race. It adds an extra dimension to your analysis, helping you move beyond surface impressions and truly appreciate the intricate dance of speed, stamina, and tactics that unfolds on the racetrack. Even if it doesn’t change your punting overnight, it will deepen your enjoyment of the sport immeasurably.
