Horse Race Analysis 20/05/2025
4.10 Lingfield – 3yo Class 5 Handicap (5f, Good to Firm)
This is a developing 3yo sprint handicap on fast ground over the straight five at Lingfield, where tactical sharpness and early pace often outweigh class or scope. Several of these have been on the go a while, but a few arrive unexposed or returning to trip conditions that could unlock improvement. Stall positioning is neutral with stalls in the centre, so the focus shifts to pace shape, efficiency, and trip suitability.
Race Shape and Tactical Setup
The overall field lacks a pure trailblazer, but Toolatetonegotiate and She Went Whoosh look the two most likely to dispute the early fractions. Hello Luna should be right behind them, and with a relatively even pace projection and no strong late closers of note, this could be controlled from a forward position. There’s very little indication this will collapse for a hold-up type, especially over this trip and on fast ground.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Sandscreendeliverd
A gelding by Bated Breath with two placings from four starts, including one over 5f. He was soundly beaten on good to firm at Windsor last time over 6f, fading late. Drops back to the minimum trip here, but profile lacks tactical pace and he’s yet to prove he’s effective on turf. OR 67 looks high against a PR of 63 and offers little wriggle room. One of the weaker profiles here.
Ghostman
Placed twice from nine starts, including one over today’s trip, but remains winless. Blinkered, and generally a one-paced grinder. Beaten favourite over 6f at Wolverhampton when last seen in December, and although down in trip here, he’s yet to show that 5f suits him ideally. Efficiency reads neutral with a PR matching his OR at 66. He’ll be staying on late but needs others to fade.
Virtue Temperance
A consistent filly with a 5f win on fast ground and two other placings at the trip. She didn’t get the clearest run when sixth last time at Windsor, and connections reach for first-time cheekpieces here. That’s a potential spark, but on pure numbers she’s running below her mark – PR 58 against an OR of 64. Can run well, but likely doing so from slightly the wrong side of the handicapper.
Toolatetonegotiate
Clearly the most reliable filly in the field for consistency, having placed six times over this trip from 10 starts. She returns to turf after a good second at Bath last month and now sports first-time cheekpieces. Importantly, she runs to her mark (PR 63 / OR 63) and gets a 3lb claim that gives her a net advantage over the field. She has pace to sit close, the right attitude, and brings the most bankable profile in terms of form and positioning. Solid candidate.
She Went Whoosh
Winner over 5f on the AW at Lingfield two starts back and was well backed when beaten favourite at Brighton last time. Goes well at the trip (four placings and a win from nine runs), and the 3lb claim brings her mark down to 60, nudging her into positive efficiency territory. She’s a natural pace angle, has won from the front, and might control things here. A bounce-back is plausible, and her trainer is in form.
Hello Luna
Lightly raced and ran well when fourth at Windsor last time on her first start in a visor, which is retained. She has early speed and shaped like she’d be better suited to this trip. PR is 60 off a mark of 63, but the visual evidence suggests she’s still improving and now finds ideal race circumstances. The Rossa Ryan booking is notable for a small stable, and if the visor helps again, she can sit handy and stay on.
Flicka’s Girl
Won on debut but has regressed steadily since. Her best form is on Tapeta and her Class 5 turf record reads 0 from 5. Was beaten just over two lengths here in February but didn’t threaten to win. PR now down to 58 with OR 62, which reflects where she is – a filly running below her current mark. No wins since her debut and hard to make a case for her here on tactical or developmental grounds.
Watkins
Consistent only in defeat, with 11 starts and one minor placing. Dropped back to 5f here, which is probably the right move, but he doesn’t have the gate speed to compete with pace angles and tends to get outpaced. PR 58 off 55 makes him one of the few technically “well in,” but that says more about the ceiling of his performances than his threat. He’ll be running past beaten horses late but remains opposable.
Conclusion and Shortlist
This looks a fair test for prominent racers with tactical speed. Toolatetonegotiate and She Went Whoosh both arrive with claims reduced by 3lb and proven trip suitability, while Hello Luna sits just behind them on the upgrade and comes from a better effort than the bare result last time.
Toolatetonegotiate stands out as the filly who does everything right for this level – no quirks, proven stamina over the trip, pace to sit close, and consistency that makes her reliable. She Went Whoosh remains a danger from the front if she bounces back, and Hello Luna brings the unexposed angle, especially if the visor continues to help her settle.
No surprises in the market expected, but this should be fought out by the fillies with tactical pace and some freshness in their profile.
Final order of preference:
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Toolatetonegotiate
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She Went Whoosh
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Hello Luna
Race Analysis: 5.05 Nottingham, 20 May 2025
Class 5, 3yo Handicap, 1m½f, Good to Firm
This looks a strongly contested 3yo handicap with a solid pace mix, mostly exposed profiles, and a well-defined ratings banding centred around the low 70s. With stalls positioned centre and good-to-firm ground in play, we’re looking at a straightforward test with limited track bias.
Man Of La Mancha (OR 77, PR 71) – Draw 1, Jack Dace (7) Progressive gelding with a strong performance figure profile. He landed a Windsor handicap over a mile earlier this month, doing so decisively under Rossa Ryan and carries a 6lb penalty here. However, the booking of 7lb claimer Jack Dace offsets that entirely. Conditions mirror that win, and he’s unbeaten on fast ground. His running style allows for tactical adaptability, and his current trajectory aligns well with this grade. With the highest OR in the field and still something in hand on PRs, he sets a benchmark.
Zarathos (74/72) – Draw 8, Ray Dawson Six-race maiden who has placed four times and shaped strongly here over course and distance two starts back. Didn’t get a clean run at Doncaster latest but closed well. Conditions suit, he’s got tactical pace, and he arrives with arguably the most consistent form this season. Still, he’s had chances and doesn’t appear to be progressing on PRs.
War Howl (73/77) – Draw 6, William Buick Returned from a break with a fair third at Newcastle on his stable debut for Michael Appleby. Buick is an eye-catching booking, and the PR of 77 puts him top of this field on raw performance. Yet there are caveats: he hasn’t run on turf since his juvenile days, and his two best runs came on the AW. Could pose a threat if repeating latest from a turf mark.
Flagon Dry (73/72) – Draw 3, Edward Greatrex Won a weak Southwell maiden at the end of 2024 and reappeared with a fair third at Ripon. That came on good ground over a mile and showed enough to suggest he belongs at this level. No tactical edge but he’s versatile and should stay. Lightly raced and still open to improvement.
Herculeus (73/72) – Draw 5, Lewis Edmunds Strongly-run maiden form and a promising Windsor third last time. Tactically prominent, still learning, and clearly better than he showed as a juvenile. The joint-highest unexposed profile in the field alongside Man Of La Mancha. Yard often improves one run into handicaps.
Everyoneknowsadave (73/73) – Draw 2, Tom Marquand Two AW wins, including a January success off 70. Mixed efforts since, including a better showing last time at Doncaster. Proven at the trip and has tactical speed. PR of 73 suggests he’s capable, but he’s hard to trust after bouncing around in form. Draw and jockey boost chances slightly.
Hot Dancer (73/74) – Draw 9, Billy Loughnane Consistent without winning, placing in 4 of 5 starts. PR of 74 is solid, but all those efforts have come in defeat. He’s been found out when asked for more late on. Fair enough profile, but less scope than Herculeus or the top two on ratings.
Darn Hot Mystery (72/72) – Draw 7, T E Whelan First start since October and switches to turf on handicap debut. Showed minor promise at 2 but this is a big ask after 216 days off. Others are more battle-hardened.
Oceans Charm (70/64) – Draw 4, Luke Morris Placed once from three starts, but comfortably outclassed on figures and limited in tactical profile. Weak PR, hasn’t shaped like one crying out for this trip.
Shortlist (Ratings + Suitability)
Man Of La Mancha – PR of 71 off OR 77 under a 7lb claim. Proven conditions, progressive, adaptable.
Herculeus – PR of 72 and improving; last run hinted at more to come. Unexposed.
War Howl – Top PR of 77, Buick booked, but turf doubts persist.
Solid Alternatives: Zarathos (consistent but exposed), Flagon Dry (scopey, but only mid-70s PR).
Man Of La Mancha stands out on logic, trajectory, and how well today’s setup aligns. Herculeus offers a developing profile with tangible upside, while War Howl carries raw ability but needs to translate it to turf.
