Newcastle 2:24: In-Depth Analysis
The 2:24 race at Newcastle is set over 10.2 furlongs on the Tapeta, and with a strong early pace anticipated, it promises to favor closers or stamina-laden front-runners. Below is an in-depth look at each horse, with visuals to help you gauge confidence levels at a glance.
Visual Legend
- Confidence Levels:
Low
Medium
High
- Key Metrics:
- Adjusted OR: Official Rating after jockey claims.
- Pace Fit: Suitability to today’s expected strong early pace.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Signora Bellissima (40/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 72 (75 – 3 lbs claim) |
| Last Race Result | 5th of 5, beaten 15L |
| Pace Fit | Poor (front-runner) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Low Place: Low |
2. Sonnerie Power (15/2)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 73 |
| Last Race Result | 3rd of 12 at Wolverhampton |
| Pace Fit | Excellent (midfield versatility) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: High Place: High |
3. Ribba Hill (8/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 72 |
| Last Race Result | 4th in a Novice event |
| Pace Fit | Average (prominent) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Medium Place: Medium |
4. Orange N Blue (33/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 70 |
| Last Race Result | Last of 8 over C&D |
| Pace Fit | Poor (prominent) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Low Place: Low |
5. Ever Hopefull (11/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 70 |
| Last Race Result | 1st at Wolverhampton |
| Pace Fit | Excellent (closer) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Medium Place: High |
6. Percy Willis (12/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 68 |
| Last Race Result | 5th over C&D |
| Pace Fit | Average (prominent) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Medium Place: Medium |
7. Hartswood (25/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 61 (68 – 7 lbs claim) |
| Last Race Result | Mid-pack finishes |
| Pace Fit | Excellent (closer) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Medium Place: High |
8. Urban Road (9/2)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 67 |
| Last Race Result | 4th over C&D |
| Pace Fit | Good (prominent) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Medium Place: High |
9. Alpine Sierra (5/2)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 66 |
| Last Race Result | Troubled 5th over C&D |
| Pace Fit | Excellent (closer) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Medium Place: High |
10. Midnight Lion (5/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 62 (65 – 3 lbs claim) |
| Last Race Result | 1st over C&D |
| Pace Fit | Excellent (versatile) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: High Place: High |
11. Life On The Rocks (18/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR | 61 (64 – 3 lbs claim) |
| Last Race Result | Mid-pack finishes |
| Pace Fit | Fair (closer) |
| Confidence Levels | Win: Low Place: Medium |
Key Insights
Win Confidence (Top Picks):
- Midnight Lion: Versatile and in excellent form.
- Sonnerie Power: Adaptable and consistent.
Place Confidence (Value Picks):
- Ever Hopefull: Closer, improving with every run.
- Hartswood: Well-handicapped with a significant weight claim.
Newcastle 2:24: Breaking Down the Field
The 2:24 at Newcastle promises a thrilling contest over 10.2 furlongs on the Tapeta surface. With 11 runners and an anticipated strong early pace, the dynamics of the race could favor closers or stamina-laden front-runners. Here’s an in-depth look at the runners, focusing on their form, pace suitability, and confidence levels for both win and place chances.
Race Overview
- Distance: 10.2 furlongs
- Surface: Tapeta
- Class: 5 (0-75 Handicap)
- Key Dynamics:
- A strong early pace is expected, likely favoring hold-up horses or those able to sustain prolonged efforts.
- Horses racing off competitive marks with solid course experience stand out in this field.
Confidence Levels and Analysis
1. Signora Bellissima (40/1)
- Jockey Claim: Sean D Bowen (3 lbs), lowering OR to 72.
- Recent Form: Struggled recently, including a 15-length defeat last time out.
- Pace Fit: As a front-runner, the strong early pace works against her.
- Verdict: Unlikely to feature without a dramatic turnaround.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Low
2. Sonnerie Power (15/2)
- OR: 73.
- Recent Form: Solid third at Wolverhampton despite unfavorable conditions. Adaptable and consistent performer.
- Pace Fit: Should track mid-division, ideal for today’s pace.
- Verdict: Well-suited to the setup; a strong contender.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: High
- Place: High
3. Ribba Hill (8/1)
- OR: 72.
- Recent Form: Lightly raced and unexposed. Handicap debut after promising runs in novices.
- Pace Fit: Prominent runner, potentially vulnerable if pace collapses.
- Verdict: Potential for improvement, but lacks proven handicap experience.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: Medium
4. Orange N Blue (33/1)
- OR: 70.
- Recent Form: Last of 8 over course and distance last time. Needs a big step forward.
- Pace Fit: Prominent racing style may leave him exposed.
- Verdict: Hard to recommend on recent performances.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Low
5. Ever Hopefull (11/1)
- OR: 70.
- Recent Form: Winner two starts back, showing improvement. Strong finisher.
- Pace Fit: Perfectly suited to today’s strong pace as a hold-up runner.
- Verdict: An improving type with strong place potential.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
6. Percy Willis (12/1)
- OR: 68.
- Recent Form: Consistent but hasn’t been competitive for wins in recent outings.
- Pace Fit: Prefers a prominent role but may lack the stamina to hold on.
- Verdict: Reliable, but others look stronger.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: Medium
7. Hartswood (25/1)
- Jockey Claim: Warren Fentiman (7 lbs), lowering OR to 61.
- Recent Form: Struggling for form but benefits from a significant weight claim.
- Pace Fit: A hold-up horse who will relish a strong pace.
- Verdict: Well-handicapped; could capitalize if conditions suit.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
8. Urban Road (9/2)
- OR: 67.
- Recent Form: Reliable course-and-distance performer. Finished a close fourth last time out.
- Pace Fit: Prominent runner with proven stamina.
- Verdict: Likely to be involved at the business end.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
9. Alpine Sierra (5/2)
- OR: 66.
- Recent Form: Consistent C&D winner; unlucky in running last time out.
- Pace Fit: Hold-up style suits today’s race conditions.
- Verdict: A strong contender for the frame.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
10. Midnight Lion (5/1)
- Jockey Claim: Kaiya Fraser (3 lbs), lowering OR to 62.
- Recent Form: Last-time-out C&D winner. Tactically versatile.
- Pace Fit: Can adapt to any pace scenario, making him a safe bet for the frame.
- Verdict: A solid, consistent performer with a strong chance.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: High
- Place: High
11. Life On The Rocks (18/1)
- Jockey Claim: Oisin McSweeney (3 lbs), lowering OR to 61.
- Recent Form: Mid-pack finishes; lacks the spark to be competitive.
- Pace Fit: Held up, but needs a perfect setup to feature.
- Verdict: Faces stiff competition.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Medium
Key Insights
Win Confidence:
- Top Choices: Midnight Lion, Sonnerie Power.
- Outside Chance: Ever Hopefull.
Place Confidence:
- Top Choices: Midnight Lion, Alpine Sierra, Sonnerie Power.
- Value Longshot: Hartswood (25/1).
Final Thoughts
This race could unfold in a variety of ways depending on the impact of the strong early pace. Horses with tactical versatility or hold-up styles are likely to perform well, especially those running off competitive marks. Use the confidence levels as a guide to make informed decisions and weigh the risks accordingly.
Race Spotlight: Newcastle 3:34 – Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap (Class 2)
The Newcastle 3:34 brings together a competitive field of 10 runners contesting over 6 furlongs on the Tapeta surface. With a prize of £13,189.68 up for grabs, this Class 2 event promises to be a thrilling affair. The pace, track bias, and all-weather form are critical factors to consider as we delve into each horse’s profile and prospects.
Key Race Details
- Distance: 6 Furlongs
- Surface: Tapeta
- Class: 2 Handicap
- Par Time: 1m 13.4s
- Pace Forecast: Moderate Pace
Track Bias and Pace Impact
- Front Runners (IV 1.5): Have a distinct advantage at Newcastle.
- Prominent Horses (IV 1.0): Competitive but need positioning.
- Hold-Up Horses (IV 0.9): Will struggle unless the pace collapses late.
A moderate pace is expected, favoring front-runners or those racing prominently. Horses with strong finishing abilities could still pose a late challenge.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Albasheer (6/1)
- Trainer: Archie Watson
- Jockey: Luke Morris
- Official Rating (OR): 104
- Weight: 9-9
- Tactical Style: Prominent
- Key Stats:
- Winner of this race in 2024.
- Proven over course and distance with strong C&D stats (5 runs, 1 win, 1 place).
Analysis: Albasheer returns as the defending champion and has maintained solid form at this level. His prominent running style suits the expected pace scenario, and his proven ability on this surface makes him a leading contender.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
- Win:
2. Saint Lawrence (20/1)
- Trainer: Archie Watson
- Jockey: Laura Coughlan (3lb claim reduces OR to 98).
- Weight: 9-6
- Tactical Style: Prominent
- Key Stats:
- Struggled on AW debut at this course in November.
Analysis: A talented performer on turf, but his AW debut left much to be desired. While the 3lb claim offers some respite, he’ll need significant improvement to be competitive here.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Low
- Win:
3. Malc (4/1)
- Trainer: Richard Fahey
- Jockey: Warren Fentiman (7lb claim reduces OR to 90).
- Weight: 9-2
- Tactical Style: Hold-Up
- Key Stats:
- Runner-up over 5f at Newcastle in November 2024.
Analysis: Malc showed his ability to handle AW surfaces when finishing second here recently. The return to 6f should suit, and the 7lb claim makes him well-weighted to challenge.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
- Win:
4. Juan Les Pins (16/1)
- Trainer: Michael Appleby
- Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson
- Weight: 8-11
- Tactical Style: Hold-Up
- Key Stats:
- 15 runs without a win since 2023.
- Modest recent efforts on AW.
Analysis: While Juan Les Pins has the ability to place in competitive races, his recent performances on AW have been uninspiring. He’ll need to recapture his best form to make an impact.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Medium
- Win:
5. Amazonian Dream (12/1)
- Trainer: Rod Millman
- Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
- Weight: 8-10
- Tactical Style: Prominent
- Key Stats:
- 50% win rate on AW.
- Strong recent form with two wins in 2024.
Analysis: Amazonian Dream has been in excellent form and thrives on the all-weather. His prominent running style and proven record on Tapeta make him a live contender, especially at an attractive price.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
- Win:
6. Fire Demon (16/1)
- Trainer: Andrew Balding
- Jockey: Jason Watson
- Weight: 8-10
- Tactical Style: Midfield
- Key Stats:
- Below-par last two runs, including an AW return.
Analysis: After a promising start to 2024, Fire Demon’s form has dipped. While his ability isn’t in question, his midfield style and lack of recent impact on AW make him difficult to support.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Medium
- Win:
7. Rohaan (12/1)
- Trainer: David Evans
- Jockey: Cam Hardie
- Weight: 8-9
- Tactical Style: Hold-Up
- Key Stats:
- Struggled in recent outings but blinkers are applied for the first time.
Analysis: Rohaan has the class but hasn’t delivered on the AW recently. The addition of blinkers could spark improvement, but his hold-up style makes him reliant on others faltering.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Low
- Win:
8. We Never Stop (5/1)
- Trainer: Kevin Ryan
- Jockey: Rowan Scott
- Weight: 8-9
- Tactical Style: Front-Runner
- Key Stats:
- Strong AW performances, including a win at Southwell.
Analysis: A progressive type since fitted with blinkers, We Never Stop is tactically suited to today’s pace setup. With a front-running style and consistent form, he’s the one to beat.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: High
- Place: High
- Win:
9. The Caltonian (16/1)
- Trainer: Linda Perratt
- Jockey: Kieran O’Neill
- Weight: 8-7
- Tactical Style: Prominent
- Key Stats:
- Strong record at Newcastle.
Analysis: The Caltonian is a Newcastle specialist who often outperforms expectations here. While this is a tougher field, his track affinity makes him a compelling place contender.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
- Win:
10. Secret Guest (14/1)
- Trainer: Bryan Smart
- Jockey: Sean D Bowen (3lb claim reduces OR to 85).
- Weight: 8-7
- Tactical Style: Hold-Up
- Key Stats:
- Runner-up in a similar C&D event in December 2024.
Analysis: Secret Guest has been consistent and competitive on AW, with the 3lb claim offering added value. His hold-up style may limit his chances of winning, but he’s a strong place contender.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
- Win:
Pace Analysis
- Likely Leader: We Never Stop
- Prominent Runners: Albasheer, Amazonian Dream, The Caltonian
- Hold-Up Horses: Malc, Juan Les Pins, Rohaan, Secret Guest
A moderate pace scenario strongly favors front-runners and prominent racers.
Selections
Top Pick:
- We Never Stop (5/1): Tactically suited, in form, and well-placed to dominate from the front.
Strong Place Contenders:
- Albasheer (6/1): Proven C&D performer with solid credentials.
- Amazonian Dream (12/1): Consistent and versatile with a prominent style.
Value Outsiders:
- The Caltonian (16/1): Thrives at Newcastle and could surprise.
- Secret Guest (14/1): A consistent placer with a useful claim.
Final Thoughts
The 3:34 at Newcastle promises a competitive sprint where We Never Stop looks the one to beat tactically and form-wise. For those looking for alternatives, Albasheer and Amazonian Dream provide solid options, while The Caltonian and Secret Guest offer value at longer odds.
Newcastle 4:10: In-Depth Analysis – BetMGM: It’s Showtime Handicap
The 4:10 Newcastle race is an intriguing Class 2 Handicap over 8 furlongs on the Tapeta surface. With a relatively small field of seven runners and a moderate pace anticipated, this contest may reward horses with tactical versatility or those who can control the tempo from the front.
Visual Legend
Confidence Levels:
- Low
- Medium
- High
Key Metrics:
- Adjusted OR: Official Rating after jockey claims.
- Pace Fit: Suitability to today’s moderate pace.
Runner-by-Runner Analysis
1. Popmaster (7/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 103 | |
| Last Race Result: 3rd of 9 at Kempton (Listed Race, beaten 1¾ lengths) | |
| Pace Fit: Good (can race prominently or hold up) |
Analysis:
Popmaster has been knocking on the door with two creditable runs on the all-weather, including a Listed third last time. While he’s unproven over a mile, his tactical adaptability gives him a fair shot in this smaller field.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
2. Symbol Of Light (9/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 95 | |
| Last Race Result: 5th of 14 at York (beaten 14 lengths, May 2024) | |
| Pace Fit: Moderate (typically races midfield) |
Analysis:
Symbol Of Light has shown promise on the all-weather, particularly earlier in his career, with three wins over a mile. However, he’s been inconsistent since and hasn’t raced in over seven months. A fitness query tempers confidence.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: Medium
3. Qazaq (7/4 F)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 92 | |
| Last Race Result: 1st of 12 at Southwell (beaten Magnum Opus by a short head, Handicap) | |
| Pace Fit: Excellent (prominent runner) |
Analysis:
Unbeaten in three career starts, Qazaq landed his handicap debut in style at Southwell, overcoming a wide draw. He’s open to further improvement and is the one to beat, although his price reflects that.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: High
- Place: High
4. Blue Prince (20/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 91 | |
| Last Race Result: 5th of 9 at Chelmsford (beaten 1½ lengths, Handicap) | |
| Pace Fit: Moderate (midfield) |
Analysis:
Blue Prince has shaped well in his last two all-weather starts, including when staying on from the rear at Chelmsford. The return to a mile should suit, but he may find this class a touch too hot.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: Medium
5. Empirestateofmind (25/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 90 | |
| Last Race Result: 6th of 9 at Chelmsford (beaten 1¾ lengths, Handicap) | |
| Pace Fit: Moderate (typically races prominently) |
Analysis:
Empirestateofmind has been winless on the all-weather but isn’t far off his old winning mark. While his latest effort was respectable, he looks vulnerable in this competitive field.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Low
- Place: Medium
6. Apiarist (3/1)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 88 | |
| Last Race Result: 1st of 11 at Newcastle (C&D Handicap, December) | |
| Pace Fit: Excellent (can lead or race prominently) |
Analysis:
Apiarist made all to win his last start over this course and distance, showcasing strong form on Tapeta. Lightly raced and progressive, he looks to have more to offer and is a leading contender.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: High
- Place: High
7. Storm Star (9/2)
| Key Metrics | Details |
|---|---|
| Adjusted OR: 86 | |
| Last Race Result: 7th of 6 at Southwell (Handicap, November 2024) | |
| Pace Fit: Good (holds a prominent position) |
Analysis:
Storm Star is consistent and reliable, often finishing in the frame, but hasn’t progressed past his debut win. While he may run well again, others have more compelling profiles for the win.
- Confidence Levels:
- Win: Medium
- Place: High
Key Insights
Win Confidence (Top Picks):
- Qazaq: Unbeaten and improving; the one to beat.
- Apiarist: Progressive and well-suited to Tapeta.
Place Confidence (Value Picks):
- Popmaster: Consistent on AW and tactically versatile.
- Storm Star: Reliable for the frame.
Final Thoughts
The 4:10 Newcastle offers a competitive field with Qazaq and Apiarist standing out as the two most likely winners. For value hunters, Popmaster and Storm Star are solid place prospects. With a moderate pace expected, horses with prominent running styles or tactical versatility should hold the upper hand.
