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Do Profitable Horse Racing Systems Exist?
The question of whether profitable horse racing systems truly exist is a common one among enthusiasts and bettors. The allure of finding a consistent, reliable method to make money from horse racing, often referred to as the “Holy Grail” of betting, is strong.
The Allure and Disappointment of Betting Systems
Picture this: after a meticulous search, you’ve finally found a horse racing system that seems foolproof. The results and statistics are impressive, showing consistent profits. With a sense of confidence, you decide to purchase the system, believing you’ve found your key to success.
Armed with your new system, you eagerly begin placing bets according to its recommendations. The first few days are thrilling as you follow the selections and wait for the outcomes. You’re filled with hope, imagining the steady stream of winnings that the system promised.
However, as the days turn into weeks, reality sets in. The promising results you saw in the system’s promotional materials aren’t materializing. Instead of consistent wins, you find yourself facing a series of losses. The selections that were supposed to be surefire winners are falling short.
You start to question the system. Did you miss something? Are you not following the instructions correctly? You double-check your bets, ensuring you’re sticking to the plan, but the results remain disappointing.
At this point you give up and bin the system.
This is very common and a number of factors now come into play.
Did You Give Up Too Early?
- Systems are generally based on statistics and probabilities. Unfortunately, if a horse racing system has a strike rate of 40%, it does not mean the wins will be linear. That is, you generally will not get 4 wins in 10 bets. These wins could come at any time,Sometimes you may rack up a string of 8 winners followed by a lengthy losing run and systems are usually shown in terms of long-term profits.
Was the System Backfitted?
2. Consider this: the system you purchased might have been backfitted. I could easily create a horse racing system based on historical results that appears to show huge profits and a 90% strike rate. This would involve selecting winning parameters from past races (backfitting). The issue with this approach is that it lacks logic and is solely based on previous results, meaning the likelihood of future success is very limited.If you purchase a system that looks to good to be true then it probably has been backfitted.
The Role of Value in Horse Racing Systems
3. Horse racing systems generally only work if the odds represent good value and the average return versus the expected return is positive. Over time, even a profitable system may start to fail once the market catches up. The strike rate may remain the same, but if the odds fall short of providing value, the system will ultimately lead to losses.
The Importance of Logic in Horse Racing Systems
4. A certain amount of logic needs to be applied to any horse racing system. Without logic, the system will inevitably fail. Far too many systems exist with no logical foundation. Take draw bias, for example. While it is a logical factor, its impact may only be present at specific tracks, over certain distances, and where there may be a pace bias. Understanding these nuances is crucial for any system to succeed.
Beyond the Basics: Why Systems Fail and Hope for Success.
The factors mentioned above are only a small part of why horse racing systems fail. Many other variables come into play, influencing a system’s success or failure. However, all is not lost. There is still a place for horse racing systems, and some may indeed be profitable with the right approach and understanding.
The Reality of Profitable Horse Racing Systems
High Strike Rate at Short Odds: These systems typically result in either a loss or a very small profit over the long term. The issue is that if you can find a profitable angle, many others can too, causing the market to catch up and making it difficult to profit.
Low Strike Rate with Big Profits: Surprisingly, these systems are often overlooked despite their potential to generate significant profits. Even though the primary aim is to make a profit, most bettors shy away from these systems due to their lower strike rate.
High Strike Rate = Short Odds
We live in an age where it is very easy to crunch the numbers, and everyone has this information at their fingertips. It’s not like the 1980s when people had to collect stats manually, which took a lot of work and years to gather a decent sample size.
Back then, compiling and analyzing data required significant effort and dedication. Today, with advanced technology and instant access to vast amounts of information, anyone can analyze horse racing statistics quickly and easily.
However, this ease of access is a double-edged sword. Many people are unwilling to put in the effort to dig deeper and develop a unique edge. They want everything to come easy, which is the downfall of living in an age where convenience is the norm. This lack of effort and reliance on readily available information contributes to the challenge of finding profitable horse racing systems which lead to high strike rates and short odds.
Example of a Common Horse Racing System
Let’s look at an example of a horse racing system I’ve seen many times before. This system focuses on flat, maiden races and involves the following criteria:
Previous Race Performance: The horse finished 2nd in its last race.
Current Race Status: The horse is the favorite for today’s race.
Age: The horse is either 2 or 3 years old.
As you can see on the face of it the horse racing system appears to have a very good win strike rate of 45% over time and may seem very appealing if you were to come across this system if it were to be advertised as a profitable horse racing system,But on closer inspection you will see that the system makes a consistent loss most years ,The reason behind this is that the market has caught up with the system,i would say if we looked further back to a time before the internet this system would of been profitable,but now everyone knows that these horse generally win a good amount of the time and as seen in the average winning odds column you are now lucky if you get even money as the odds and yet the system falls short of the 50% win rate needed to break even ,this points to these horses being over bet and will lead to losses as the numbers do not add up.
Low Strike Rate = High Profit Potential
Now, let’s break down the low strike rate horse racing systems. These are the systems that most people shy away from due to their low strike rate. However, they can be highly profitable.
I have written an article about how a 2% strike rate system can outperform a 50% strike rate system. The key is that these systems, despite their low strike rates, remain profitable because few are willing to follow them. As a result, you can still back horses at profitable odds since the market has not caught up.
Market Overlook: Because most bettors avoid low strike rate systems, the market does not adjust the odds as quickly. This means that these systems can continue to offer value bets, providing opportunities for savvy bettors to profit.
A Working Example
Let’s consider a specific example to illustrate the potential of low strike rate systems:
Nicky Henderson’s Horses
Criteria:
- Trainer: Nicky Henderson
- Race Class: Class 3, 4, and 5 races
- Horse Age: 6 years old and above
- Race Type: Handicap races
- Form: Horses dropping 1 or more classes
The Hidden Value
While many bettors focus on Nicky Henderson’s better performers in higher class races, this system targets horses that meet the above criteria. Although the logic behind this system isn’t detailed here, it has a overall strike rate of around 20%.
Why It Works
- Overlooked Opportunities: Many bettors discard horses in lower class races or those dropping in class, preferring to back higher-profile runners. This creates opportunities for those who focus on these overlooked categories.
- Profitable Strike Rate: Despite a relatively low 20% strike rate, the odds on these horses are often higher as people are not betting on these horses.
So as you can see following a lower strike rate horse racing system can be better and as long as you understand the strike rate and stake accordingly you can find profit where people overlook with a average win odds of nearly 11 .
So, Can You Make a Profit from Horse Racing Systems?
The question of whether you can make a profit from horse racing systems is a complex one. From my own experience of creating and using horse racing systems over many years, I have learned a lot about what works and what doesn’t. Recently, I made a significant change: I deleted 90% of my systems. Here’s why and how I still use systems, albeit in a different way.
The issues I encountered with horse racing systems presented themselves in a few different ways. As explained earlier, many systems are short-lived. This isn’t because the strike rate changes but because the betting market evolves as more people develop similar systems.
Another challenge is determining the point at which you actually make a profit. Horse racing systems, although based on strike rates, don’t guarantee that a system with a 20% strike rate will yield 2 out of 10 wins in a linear fashion. Instead, you might experience a string of 5 or 6 wins followed by a lengthy losing run.
In the back of my mind, I always had to remember to save the profits to combat the inevitable losing runs. This leads to the first problem again: by the time your system starts to yield results again, the betting public has become wise to it, causing the odds to crash and making it even harder to recover.
So, the question remains: at what point do you take a profit? The answer is that there is never a good time for the period you are using the system.
The Next Problem: Creating and Managing Systems
Another significant problem with horse racing systems is the need to constantly create new ones, leading to an influx of bets. To stay ahead, you need to spot trends early, which introduces a new set of challenges.
Small Sample Sizes and Unreliable Stats
When you develop new systems frequently, the sample size is often small. This means the statistics you rely on can be unreliable. While you might get lucky occasionally and find a system that works, more often than not, it feels like you’re just sticking a pin in the race card and betting on it.
Influx of Bets
The constant creation of systems means you end up placing a large number of bets. Managing this influx can be overwhelming and increases the risk of losing runs. Additionally, the effort required to monitor and adjust multiple systems can be taxing and time-consuming.
So, How Do I Use Horse Racing Systems Now?
Nowadays, I use horse racing systems in a different way. Generally, I create systems for two primary purposes:
The Way In
I create very loosely based systems not to find profit directly but to identify a strike rate. These systems help me to discard horses, providing a way into the race. By focusing on strike rate rather than profit, I can narrow down the field and identify potential contenders more effectively.
This method acts as a filtering process, allowing me to eliminate horses that don’t meet certain criteria and helping to streamline my betting strategy. By using these loosely based systems, I gain a clearer view of the race without being overly reliant on specific systems for direct profits.
Example of a Loosely Based System
An example of such a system is:
Kempton A/W System
Criteria:
- Race Location: Kempton All-Weather
- Draw: Horses drawn in quarter 4 of the stalls
- Race History: Horses that have had more than 2 starts
- Running Style: Horses that have never raced prominently at the start (this can be found in race comments)
Using Public Betting Trends to Your Advantage
As you can see, this system has a strike rate of only 8% over time and results in significant losses. Therefore, I can safely discard any horses from races at Kempton that meet the above criteria.
Leveraging Public Betting Trends
Interestingly, I am using the behavior of the general public to my advantage. Out of nearly 4000 races, only 266 horses meeting these criteria have gone off as favourites, suggesting that the public is not betting on these horses for a good reason. This allows me to benefit from the collective analysis and betting trends of the public without spending hours analyzing draw stats and pace bias myself.
The above is a very basic example of how to find a way in,There are many others but it is a very efficient way of discarding horses very quickly
Micro Systems for Short-Term Gains
The second way I use horse racing systems is by creating micro systems. These systems focus on a specific data set or angle and are used for a very short term. The goal is to capitalise on profitable opportunities quickly and then move on, avoiding the pitfalls of long-term market adaptation.
How Micro Systems Work
- Specific Focus: Micro systems hone in on a particular set of data or an angle that appears promising.
- Short-Term Use: These systems are used only until they yield a profit, then they are discarded.
- Profit and Run: By discarding the system once it has provided a profitable return, I avoid the problem of determining the optimal point to take a profit. This approach ensures that I take advantage of profitable trends before the market catches up.
Example of a Micro System: Targeting Medium-Sized or New Trainers
Another effective micro system is to focus on medium-sized trainers or relatively new trainers. These trainers are often under the radar but have distinct strategies and pressures that can be leveraged for profitable betting.
Why This System Works
Strategic Placement: Medium-sized and new trainers need to maximize their horses’ performance to build their reputation and secure prize money. They are more likely to place their horses in races where they have a genuine chance of winning.
Limited Resources: With smaller strings of horses, these trainers must be selective and strategic about race entries. Their limited options mean they cannot afford to waste opportunities and must choose races wisely.
Reputation Building: New trainers, in particular, need to prove themselves. Winning races is crucial for their reputation and attracting better horses in the future.
Of course there are other reasons attaining to handicap marks etc but this is to broader subject to cover here.
Working Example: A Throwaway Micro System
This system is designed as a throwaway system, meaning it’s intended for short-term use until it yields a profit. The idea is to discard it once it becomes profitable, avoiding the long-term pitfalls of market adaptation. Here’s how it works:
Criteria
- Trainer: P. Twomey
- Race Type: Flat races at Irish tracks
- Distance: 7 furlongs (7f) or longer
- Race Condition: Non-handicap races
- Timeframe: Since 2022
P. Twomey is a trainer who may not attract as much attention as some of the more prominent names, providing an opportunity to find value. By focusing on specific conditions (non-handicap races at 7f+), we can exploit a niche that may offer favorable odds before the market catches up.
Following the above,There would of always been a profitable point at which you could discard the system ,The micro angle has always performed better than the market suggests as seen by the A/E figure.
So whilst this system remains profitable it will only be a matter of time before the public latches on and the runners will be over bet ,This is the importance of discarding the system once in profit.
Embracing Speed Figures and Sectional Times
In more recent times, I’ve shifted my focus towards speed figures and sectional times in horse racing. These metrics are often overlooked because they require time and effort to analyze thoroughly. However, they have proven to be crucial in identifying profitable angles that others may miss.
Why Speed Figures and Sectional Times?
Speed figures and sectional times provide valuable insights into a horse’s performance during different parts of a race. By analyzing these metrics:
Accuracy: They offer a more precise assessment of a horse’s speed and stamina throughout a race, beyond just the finishing position.
Understanding: They help in understanding how a race was run, which can be critical in predicting future performances.
Benefits of Watching Race Replays
Additionally, spending more time watching race replays has been integral to my strategy:
Insight: Replays allow for a deeper understanding of race dynamics, including how horses move and respond in different situations.
Identification: It helps in identifying horses that might have had troubled trips or showed promising performances despite not winning.
Overcoming the Effort Barrier
While these approaches require significant time and effort, they have been instrumental in maintaining profitability:
Market Edge: By investing in overlooked areas like speed figures and race replays, I often find profitable angles that others miss.
Profitability: Despite the initial effort, focusing on these detailed analyses has kept my betting strategies ahead of the market and consistently profitable.
I also spend alot of time profiling horses and trainers which i will be covering in a future post ,But for now i hope you can find some value in this post .I am sure many people may disagree with some of my points and they will continue to use the same systems with the belief they have the holy grail of horse racing systems ,But i would argue it will be short lived.
